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The NFL comes to Fantasy Insider

Posted Mon 19 September by Darryl Woodford

After a quiet test release last week (though we see you all still crunched over 500 lineups!), NFL is now ready to go on Fantasy Insider.

Projections / Lineup Cruncher

You can view our projections for both Moneyball and Draftstars, as well as build lineups, from the NFL lineup cruncher. Currently, the NFL lacks some of the metrics (Bomb%, Upside%) and thus parameters (10 point modifier) of our AFL and NRL tools, as we need to gather more information. This week was the first week that Draftstars had offered NFL, and we have limited salary data from Moneyball in 2016 (as I only played a small number of tournaments). The extra information will be added over the next few weeks, but you can already start building lineups, like these ones for the New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals:

Screenshot 2016-09-12 19.51.52

 

Smart Lineups

This week, for the first time, you can build NFL lineups using our new tool, Smart Lineups. Smart Lineups essentially starts you out with an optimal lineup based on our algorithm, and offers ‘plain English’ suggestions for how you can make that lineup unique (and bring in your own knowledge!). You can use it to build lineups for Draftstars and Moneyball, by following a pretty quick step by step process:

Screenshot 2016-09-12 20.31.06

 

Then have at it, and make your changes:

Screenshot 2016-09-12 20.30.27

 

Methodology & Testing

Through the wonders of the internet, we’ve been able to backtest our algorithm on 6 seasons of NFL Data. The algorithm uses state of the art machine learning technology, and has been subject to out-of-sample testing. We’re confident enough in it to risk our own money on it’s results. That said, as with AFL and NRL, the model will improve over the course of the year, and as we gather salary data from the DFS platforms, will be better placed to build lineups which take advantage of weaknesses in their pricing mechanisms and ownership numbers. The model will be re-optimised after each week of additional data.

Strategy and Stacking

For NFL, our stacking algorithm is designed to give you combinations of QB, WR and TE only. Typically, you want to avoid stacking RB with QB or WR, as a QB getting a lot of yards will imply a RB does not. We’ll add more options to this in the coming weeks, and share some thoughts on strategy as the season evolves, and we get a chance to test both methods and data.

How do I subscribe?

All of these tools are available for no additional fee to our Unlimited subscribers, and to subscribers to our NFL package (currently just $14.95/month). If you’ve not yet had a Free Trial, you can get started here.

Darryl Woodford

Darryl is the guy behind the DFS username dpwoodford. Co-founder of Fantasy Insider, he has over 15 years experience in building models for betting on sporting events, and was one of the early leaders in Australian DFS.

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