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k1w1nOz’s NRL R7 ANZAC Day Double Header DFS Preview & Lineups

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by k1w1nOz

A day off work and an NRL ANZAC Day double header.  Thursday don't get much better, especially with $15k in DFS prize money up for grabs tonight.

The Roosters & Storm are both 5-1 and will be aiming to lock-up their positions at the top of the table.  The Roosters are in for a tough battle tonight when they host a Dragons side that has won 4 straight, after starting their season with 2 losses.

Meanwhile the Storm should easily bounce back from their golden point thriller last round, when they host the 2-4 Warriors - who have been playing fundamentally well, but since losing Shaun Johnson, have struggled to cross the try line.

ANZAC DAY NRL GPP'sDSMB
Roosters v Dragons @ 4:05pm$3k$4k
Storm v Warriors @ 7:50pm$5k$3k

Draftstars (DS) & Moneyball (MB) have chosen opposite feature games, making it a good day to play on both sites.  Sadly DS's $5k GPP is the biggest game of the round - but with Thursday night AFL ending this week, we should see a return to juicy NRL GPP's next Thursday night.

Kick start your DFS research and claim your share of the prize money on offer by checking out my preview of tonight’s games and the lineups I’m playing on DS & MB.

CHECK OUT FANTASY INSIDER’S FREE LINEUP CRUNCHER!

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ROOSTERS v DRAGONS

Sydney Cricket Ground - 4:05pm

These teams won 1 game each when they met last season, with the Dragons taking out last years ANZAC Day match.  Even with their reshuffled backline, the bookies have last years premiers as $1.45 favourites, and are offering a generous $2.75 for a Dragons win, with a 6.5 point line and 40.5 point match total.

From 10,000 match simulations, Stats Insider projects a Roosters win by 5 points - but has identified a solid 6% betting edge for the Dragons H2H, and a solid 4% edge on the Dragons line, but a No Bet in match total markets.

If you are having a punt this round, check out Stats Insider’s VALUE SUMMARY page.

INS/OUTS

Latrell Mitchell will play #6 for the Roosters tonight, with star half Luke Keary recovering from concussion.  Mitch Aubusson moves to left centre, and Angus Crichton starts in Aubusson's backrow spot.  In good news Joseph Manu returns to right centre, and the Roosters welcome back co-captain Jake Friend, allowing Victor Radley to return to lock.  Siosiua Taukeiaho was questionable, but participated in Wednesdays captains run.

The Dragons have named the same 17 that has delivered 4 wins on the trot.

MATCH-UPS

Let’s take a look at the new Stats Insider positional scoring data that I discussed in my Diving Deeper into NRL Data post last week.  The table below shows where tries have been scored & conceded so far this season.

Not only have the Roosters scored more than half of their tries on their left side, but Latrell Mitchell (2 tries this season), Boyd Cordner (3), Mitch Aubusson (4) & Daniel Tupou (4) also get a tasty match-up in this game against a Dragons right side defense that has leaked over half of their tries this season.

The Roosters have concerned tries equally on both sides, while the Dragons have slightly favoured their right side of Ben Hunt (2 tries this season), Tyson Frizell (1), Euan Aitken (2) & Mikaele Ravalawa (4).

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MY LINEUPS

Last weeks lesson was to jump on the cheapie starters that popped up in final team lists - which my preview lineups didn't.  It's crunch time for me tonight with my preview lineup cashing record now a sad 3-9 (+$14.36 for me and anyone who has played all of them).

Below are the lineups I’ve entered in tonight’s DS & MB feature GPP’s.  Feel free to enter these lineups yourself – or use them as a core to develop your own unique lineup.

The salaries in this game are probably the best we've seen this season.  DS salaries allow for a ton of viable builds and, for a change, MB salaries require a bit of thought and game scripting.

I'm (reasonably) confident that Jake Friend will top the HK scorers and have lowish ownership in this game, assuming he plays his regular mins.  He's an insta-play in my MB lineup for $7,500, but it's a little more tricky on DS with DPP Victor Radley also an option at HK (playing at lock). Radley's $5,500 saving is value if you think Friend will score less than 60 DS fpts.  Ultimately, I chose to squeeze Friend into my DS lineup - but a Radley lineup with upgraded forwards was mighty tempting.

Normally Ben Hunt and his av 329 KM, plus 2 tries & 5 try assists this season would be a lock for me, but the fpt bump Cooper Cronk gets with Keary out gets him the HLF spot in my lineups - something that doesn't happen often.

We're spoiled for choice with so many affordable elite forwards on offer in this game.  Without Friend, lineup builds with your choice of Siosiua Taukeiaho, Paul Vaughan, James Graham, JWH, Angus Crichton & Boyd Cordner are all possible.

Crichton and his pairing with Cronk make it into my DS lineup, along with Graham who seems locked into 50 DS fpt games this season.  Graham also makes my MB lineup, as does Taukeiaho (since I couldn't afford Crichton without playing a bench forward there).

Blake Lawrie & Victor Radley are my "Jake Friend" cheapies who complete my forward pack on both sites.  They are well under priced and should easily exceed value.

I was a little torn about Latrell Mitchell.  He's a gun fantasy player, but in his previous 2 starts at #6 he scored 24 & 43 DS fpts.  For $8,000 on MB (at HLF) & $11,650 on DS (at CTR) he'll struggle to hit value without crossing the try line himself.  Instead I've opted for Euan Aitken at centre in my DS lineup as my token attacking Dragon, for his match-up against a weakened Roosters left edge.

Cronk is the master of the attacking kick, so it's not surprising that the Roosters score a league high 32% of tries from kicks.  I'm expecting Cronk to do most of the play making and bomb both corners of the Dragons in goal all night, so have rostered Roosters corner tall men Joseph Manu & Daniel Tupou in my backline.  Regular Roosters go-to James Tedesco has only exceeded value twice this season and seems overpriced, especially on MB, at $11k on both sites.

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STORM v WARRIORS

AAMI Park - 7:50pm

The Storm have dominated the Warriors in recent years, including a 40 point flogging in last years ANZAC Day game.  It's not surprising to see the Storm as $1.15 hot favourites over the $5.75 Warriors tonight.  The bookies 40.5 match total and 14.5 point line aren't very encouraging for Warriors tragics like me.

Stats Insider simulations aren't any better for Warriors fans, projecting a 16 point win by the Storm with a 42 point match total.  Stats Insider recommends No Bet in this game.

Did you know that Stats Insider is now completely FREE?

INS/OUTS

Curtis Scott has been dropped by the Storm, with Marion Seve named at right centre.

The Warriors have suffered numerous key late outs with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Solomone Kata & Blake Green all ruled out - causing a chain reaction of player changes, with David Fusitu'a already out injured.  Gerard Beale will play fullback, utility Peta Hiku moves to cover the right wing, with Patrick Herbert likely to debut at right centre, and Blake Ayshford starting (I'm guessing) at left centre.  Tohu Harris moves to HLF, giving Isaiah Papali'i a start on the left edge.

MATCH-UPS

Let’s take at the tries scored & conceded data for this game.

The Storm have only scored 2 more tries than the Warriors this season - but have conceded half as many (12 less tries in 6 games).

The Storm have clearly favoured the left side attack of Cam Munster (2 tries this season), Kenny Bromwich (1), Will Chambers (2) & Josh Addo-Carr (4) accounting for over half of all tries scored.  However their right side of Brodie Croft (1), Felise Kaufusi, Marion Seve (1)  & Suliasi Vunivalu (3) get the better match-up in this game against a Warriors left side that alone has leaked more tries than the whole Storm team has this season.

If the Warriors have done their homework they will know to target the Storm right side, which has conceded an incredible 75% of their tries - giving Chanel Tavita-Harris (3 try assists this season),  Isaiah Papali'i  (1 try), Blake Ayshford & Ken Mamalo (3) the best of the Warriors attacking match-ups in this game.

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MY LINEUPS

Feel free to enter these lineups yourself – or use them as a core to develop your own unique lineup.

Based on the match-up data, I have stacked the Storm & Warriors left sides in my lineups.  MB salaries are a little looser than the first game, making it easy to lock in a few elite plays.

Cameron Smith is one of those elite options that is an insta-play on MB, while his salary seems just a little out of reach on DS.  Instead I've rostered Daly M Interchange Player of the Year Jazz Tevaga as my DS HK, and into my MB forward pack.  I'd love to play Issac Luke at HK, but his playing minutes and fpt output now seem limited.

Keeping with my left side stacking strategy Kenny Bromwich & Isaiah Papali'i are my edge forwards.  I've opted for Nelson Asofa-Solomona & Bunty Afoa as my props - but there are a ton of good $10k-$11k options in this game.  The looser MB salaries allowed my to fill my final forward spot with Warriors young gun lock Lahlan Burr.

Since Cameron Munster can be rostered at WFB on DS, my HLF spot goes to Chanel Harris-Tavita who should get a nice fpt bump playing along side Harris and easily return value.

Cameron Munster is likely to be one of the highest fpt scoring plays on the slate - especially if the Storm really go to town on the patchwork Warriors backline.  He's my DS WFB, and my MB HLF.

I've taken a total punt on cheapie Blake Ayshford in both of my lineups partly because of his bargain price, partly because of the tasty match-up he has, and partly because he should have lowish ownership. Fingers crossed.

Left side Storm winger Josh Addo-Carr joins my lineups for his match-up, while the final spot in my MB backline goes to Will Chambers for a full Storm left side stack.

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CRUNCH YOUR LINEUPS NOW

Good luck with your lineups and remember to always check final team lists posted 60 mins before kickoff.

If you’re new to NRL DFS have a quick read of my NRL DFS Strategy Basics article, and also check out my NRL DFS Strategy: Draftstars vs Moneyball post if you play on both sites.  Oh, and don’t forget to try the FREE version of the Fantasy Insider Lineup Cruncher.