With the Final T20 of the Australian home season now in the books, it seems a good time to take a step back and look at how the projections have gone over the course of the season, some lessons learnt, and some thoughts on strategy heading into the New Zealand Series, but more importantly the World T20 and the IPL.
Let’s start with the numbers..
Since the start of the Big Bash, using our projections I am +$2,800. For the most part, that is playing 5-7 entries per day across 2-3 competitions at Top8 and Moneyball. In total, $2373 was invested for a return of $5192, and an overall ROI of 119%. In my opinion, the H2H and Double-Up market in Australia (for Cricket at least) still isn’t established enough to make entering multi-lineups a value proposition; and so 95% of our entries were in GPP’s, which explains the variance in the graph above. Almost half ($1300) of the profits came yesterday, with a first and second at Moneyball, and fwo first place cashes at Top8.
Overall in ODIs I show a loss of $112 on $232 invested (34 entries). It’s still too early to draw any conclusions here, and some of that loss can be attributed to a coding error, where we were significantly overvaluing bowlers for the first 3 ODI’s. I don’t plan any major modifications until we see how the New Zealand series plays out, but suggest treating the ODI projections with a little caution in the short term.
I don’t think there’s any great secrets to Cricket DFS. At Moneyball, where the roster composition is prescribed, you’ll need at least one lesser-owned player who does well to cash in a GPP (e.g. Suresh Raina, who’s 37 points with just 5.9% ownership put me over the top in yesterday’s contest). At Top8, it’s really all about the Captain. There, multi-entry is the key, establishing a key core of players, while varying one or two of the lesser players and the captain in different lineups. Solid all rounders such as Andre Russell are gold at Top8, as with two chances to perform the risk of placing them in the Captain slot is lowered significantly.
At both sites, I think the key is making sure that you have reasonable exposure to each of the potential high scorers, which keeps you in the contest and means you’re effectively betting that our ‘core’ beats that of other players; minimizing the ‘lottery’ effect of the high scorer — and that’s a bet I’ll take every day.