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k1w1nOz’s Wednesday BBL Preview: Strikers v Hurricanes

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by k1w1nOz

In total contrast to last nights uninspiring battle for the BBL|07 wooden spoon, tonight's game featuring two of the best teams in the tournament should be a real cracker.

Last night's Draftstars GPP grew to $13,150 by lockout, which is really positive for the growth of DFS in Australia, considering this time last year the feature BBL GPP's on Draftstars were down to $7k.

Some updated interesting (possibly useful) stats

Draftstars BBL GPP winning lineups to game #30
BATStacked team batting 1st23%
 Stacked team batting 2nd20%
 Batsmen from both teams57%
BWLStacked team bowling 1st20%
 Stacked team bowling 2nd23%
 Bowlers from both teams57%

30+ Run innings x batting position x 1st v 2nd innings
 Bat 1stBat 2nd

The Venue

Thanks to a couple of lopsided wins by the Strikers at home, the team batting first has averaged 154 runs, while the team batting second has only averaged 118 runs in the 3 games played at Adelaide Oval this tournament.

Of the 38 wickets taken at Adelaide Oval in BBL|07, 21 were by fast bowers, 14 by spinners, with 3 run out's.

A glorious evening is forecast for the 7:40pm AEDST game.

The Teams

Both the Strikers & Hurricanes are 5-2 in BBL07.  A Strikers win tonight would see them move into outright 1st on the ladder, while a Hurricanes victory will put them on equal points with the Scorchers but slightly behind their net run rate.

The Strikers hold a 4-3 historical advantage over the Hurricanes, but it was the Hurricanes who were victorious when theses teams met 2 weeks ago, with the Strikers falling 7 runs short in their run chase.

Despite the Hurricanes current form, despite them beating the Strikers 2 week ago, and despite the Strikers being without Travis Head, the bookies have them as $1.75 favourites to defeat the Hurricanes tonight.  Huh?

The Hurricanes have named an unchanged squad, while Kelvin Smith & Wes Agar have been included in the Strikers 13 man squad at the expense of Liam O'Connor & Daniel Drew.

The Strikers desperately need to strengthen their batting lineup after the loss of Finch, so don't be surprised to see Kelvin Smith given a run tonight, possibly for Lehmann or one of the Jono's.  Smith has two BBL matches to his name, including a 41* in his debut game in BBL|04.

Likely Batting Orders

1Alex Carey (wk)1Alex Doolan
2Jake Weatherald2D'Arcy Short
3Colin Ingram3Matthew Wade (wk)
4Jonathan Wells4Ben McDermott
5Jono Dean5George Bailey
6Lehmann/Smith6Daniel Christian
7Michael Neser7Simon Milenko
8Rashid Khan8Jofra Archer
9Peter Siddle9Cameron Boyce
10Ben Laughlin10Clive Rose
11Billy Stanlake11Tymal Mills

Players to Consider

Bowler – Rashid Khan

Khan is the only bowler in either side tonight who has taken a wicket in every single one of his games this tournament.  He has an impressive 5.0ER and has troubled nearly every batsman who has faced him in BBL|07.  Despite his high salary, Khan is playable in a Short featured lineup (with a little compromise on Draftstars).

Batsman – Colin Ingram (Draftstars) / D'Arcy Short (Moneyball)

Colin "Bulldozer" Ingram had his best innings of the tournament when these teams met a couple of weeks ago, smashing 66 runs off 44 balls to give the Strikers a chance of winning, after their openers went cheaply.  The Strikers hopes of winning this game largely rely on another good innings from Ingram, which he will be well aware of.  The fact that he may bowl an over or 2 adds to his appeal.

It's a very easy decision to play D'Arcy Short at BAT on Moneyball, where his high salary is still manageable.  In case you haven't been paying attention, Short now holds the record for the most runs in a BBL season, scoring 465 runs (so far) at an average of 66 with a 153SR.  Oh, and he has bowled 9 overs capturing 2 wickets at 7.0ER.

If you're struggling with your salary cap, Alex Doolan presents as a solid value play at BAT on both Draftstars & Moneyball - though he is more attractive as a pivot play away from Short.

Keeper – Matthew Wade (Draftstars) / Alex Carey (Moneyball)

Alex Carey has quietly been the best of the Strikers batsmen with innings of 44, 83, 34, 59 & 44 in his 6 games this tournament.  He is a lock on Moneyball where he is inexplicably only $500 more than Wade.

It's a different story on Draftstars where Carey is $8k more than Wade.  In fact, at $10k Wade presents as one of the best value plays in this game - and a must if you want Short in your lineup.

All-Rounder – D'Arcy Short (Draftstars) / Michael Neser (Moneyball)

It will only be the most brave who fade Short on Draftstars tonight.  Most players experience scoring regression quickly in BBL (like KP last night), but Short is going from strength to strength.  Of course now that I've said that he'll probably deliver a dud score for me, but I don't know how you can fade Short in a single entry lineup - even at his insanely high salary on Draftstars.

On Moneyball I'll be cautiously playing Michael Neser.  I don't like the fact he went for 11 runs an over when these teams last played, but I do like his 2 x 50+ fpt scores this tournament - something Dan Christian is yet to deliver coaches who've rostered him.  Interestingly Christian also went for 11 runs an over when these teams played a couple of weeks ago.

POD Pick – Fade D'Arcy Short

Fading Short will most certainly put you in the minority of lineups tonight - the ideal scenario if Short goes cheaply.  Alex Doolan and/or Ben McDermott make excellent pivot plays if you're fading Short (and he fails to score).

Because of Short and his high salary I'm expecting player ownership's to be well spread tonight, with plenty of coaches opting to play guys like Wells, Dean & Smith purely based on their affordable salary.

Avoid – Jonathan Wells & Jono Dean

Well, my letter to George Bailey didn't quite work last game.  He only scored 19 runs, but then went and grabbed a couple of catches, delivering a GPP winning fpt score.  To be fair, I didn't specifically ask George to not make any catches in that game.  Oh well, it just goes to show that basically everyone is in play in a BBL DFS GPP.

In this game I won't be tempted by the bargain salary's of the Jono's - Wells & Dean, but plenty will.  For around the same cost I'd rather opt for Jake Weatherald or punt on Kelvin Smith (if he plays).

If you’re new to BBL DFS, check out my BBL DFS Strategy Basics article.

You can build lineups for free using the basic version of the Fantasy Insider lineup cruncher here.  Premium subscribers have access to player projections and powerful advanced settings like player exposure levels.

Check out dpwoodford’s How to build BBL lineups video to learn more about the Lineup Cruncher advanced settings.

Good luck with your lineups tonight. Remember to always check final teams – and that it’s all just a bit of fun!