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k1w1nOz’s Wednesday BBL Preview: Heat v Hurricanes

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by k1w1nOz

Get ready for fireworks in tonight's battle between the BBL's best batting teams, when the 4th place Lynn-less Heat host the 5th place Hurricanes.  With an average 185 runs scored/innings by these teams in previous encounters, we can expect another high scoring game tonight.

It's really pleasing to see that Draftstars have reassigned a few player positions, with D'Arcy Short & Ben McDermott now BAT options - and a nice range of salary's in all positions for this game.  Well done Draftstars.

Draftstars have posted a $12.5k GPP, with $6k on offer at Moneyball.  Let's take a look at tonight's game at The Gabba, where a glorious Qld summers evening is forecasted for game time.

The Teams

The Heat are sitting at 4-2 in this seasons tournament, while the Hurricanes are 3-2.  A convincing win by either team in this game would see them claim 3rd place on the BBL07 table.

Although the Hurricanes hold a 6-4 BBL record against the Heat, and despite the loss of Chris Lynn, the bookies have the Heat as $1.70 favourites.  For me, the whole game comes down to one player, Brendon McCullum.  He will be under immense pressure to compensate for the loss of Lynn and deliver a game winning innings - but without a big game from McCullum, the Hurricanes batting may be too deep for this Heat bowling attack.

Jack Prestwidge has come into the Heat squad for Chris Lynn.  The Heat may opt to strengthen their bowling attack with Prestwidge, but more likely is the return of batsmen Marnus Labuschagne to the Heat XI.

The Hurricanes have an unchanged squad, but may choose to give batsman Nathan Reardon his BBL07 debut after Simon Milenko has failed to impress in his 3 games this tournament.

 Likely Batting Orders

1Jimmy Peirson (wk)1D'Arcy Short
2Brendon McCullum2Alex Doolan
3Sam Heazlett3Matthew Wade (wk)
4Joe Burns4Ben McDermott
5Alex Ross5George Bailey
6Marnus Labuschagne6Daniel Christian
7Ben Cutting7Milenko/Reardon
8Mark Steketee8Jofra Archer
9Brendan Doggett9Cameron Boyce
10Yasir Shah10Clive Rose
11Mitchell Swepson11Tymal Mills

Players to Consider

Bowler – Mark Steketee (Draftstars) / Jofra Archer (Moneyball)

Spinners may struggle on the flat & hard Gabba wicket, so I'll be favouring quicks in this game.  Mark Steketee has 6 wickets in 6 games, but importantly looked to have finally found his length with his last game 3 wicket haul.  His 7.85 ER isn't anything special - but presents as the Heats best fast bowling weapon and is fairly priced.

On Moneyball I'll again be locking in Jofra Archer and his 8 wickets in 5 games at 6.55 ER.  I can see Archer doing some real damage if exposed to the Heat lower order in his second bowling stint.

It will be super tempting to play Brendan Doggett after his last game 5 wicket haul, but be aware they were batsmen #4, #8, #10 & #11, with the Scorchers well behind the run rate & swinging for the fence off every ball.

Batsman – Joe Burns

The loss of Chris Lynn should see Joe Burns again called on to anchor the Heat innings.  He's only had one dud score this tournament (during the Heat's batting capitulation to the Strikers) to go with impressive innings of 50, 45, 36 & 18no.

It's a borderline call on Draftstars where Burns is only $2k less than Brendon McCullum, but I don't have a lot of confidence in McCullum batting under the pressure of compensating for the loss of Lynn - while on Moneyball, Burns is a lock at half the cost of McCullum.

Keeper – Matthew Wade

It's hard to play Wade or Jimmy Peirson with any confidence.  Both are just as capable of a duck as they are of a 30+ score, but Wade's recent form is undeniable.  If you're playing multiple lineups it'd pay to have exposure to both keepers, but if you're just playing one lineup, Wade is your man.

All-Rounder – Jofra Archer (Draftstars) / Ben Cutting (Moneyball)

As I've mentioned above, I think fast bowling will prosper tonight - and Jofra Archer is the best quick in this game.  I'll cross my fingers that his wicket-less last game will scare other coaches away & lower his ownership (but I'm not holding my breath).

On Moneyball it's a tough choice between Dan Christian & Ben Cutting.  Cutting does have slightly better bowling stats than Christian, but it's the loss of Lynn and the Heat's increased reliance on Cutting with the bat that get's him across the line.  I'll be hoping he jags a wicket or 2, and repeats his explosive 46 runs off just 20 balls last game.

POD Pick – George Bailey

Former Australian T20 Captain Bailey has had his run scoring heavily restricted this tournament, but we know he's more than capable of a game winning innings at any time.  This time last year he knocked 69 off 54 balls v the Thunder, then 4 days later he smacked 59 off 42 balls v the Renegades.

His recent form should guarantee lowish ownership - but will this be the game Bailey finally fires?

Avoid – Mitchell Swepson

Sticking to my "fast bowlers will prosper" theory, I'll be fading Swepson in this game.  His 4 wickets in 6 games sounds ok, but 3 of those all came in one game.  With wickets in only 2 of 6 games, and an av 7.13 ER (inc 12.67 ER v Thunder) I have no interest in Swepson at his current salary level on either site.

Yasir Shah is much more appealing if you want to play a spinner.  He doesn't cost much more than Swepson on Draftstars, and incredibly is cheaper than Swepson on Moneyball.

If you’re new to BBL DFS, check out my BBL DFS Strategy Basics article.

You can build lineups for free using the basic version of the Fantasy Insider lineup cruncher here.  Premium subscribers have access to player projections and powerful advanced settings like player exposure levels.

Check out dpwoodford’s How to build BBL lineups video to learn more about the Lineup Cruncher advanced settings.

Good luck with your lineups tonight. Remember to always check final teams – and that it’s all just a bit of fun!