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k1w1nOz’s Thursday BBL Preview: Scorchers v Strikers

Posted Thu 25 January by k1w1nOz

It’s DFS stud overload tonight when the best two sides in BBL|07 battle to finish on top of the ladder and win the right to host the tournament decider.

The majority of players in tonight’s game have had 100+fpt games this tournament, creating quite flat pricing in all positions, with value plays few and far between.

Let’s take a look at the info you need to consider for tonight’s game.

The Venue

In the 4 BBL|07 games played at the WACA the team batting first has averaged 165 runs, with the team batting second averaging 163 runs and winning 3 of 4 games.

The WACA has been reasonably kind to batsmen this tournament with only 39 wickets taken in those 4 games, 29 (74%) by fast bowlers, a meager 5 from slow/spin bowling, with 5 run out’s.

Tonight’s match is also farewell to the “The Furnace”, with the Scorchers moving to the new Perth Stadium (Optus Stadium) for their BBL|07 semi-final next Thursday – and beyond.

The Teams

Both teams tonight have impressive 7-2 records in BBL|07.  The winner tonight earns the right to host the tournament decider Sunday week, assuming at least one these sides win their semi’s next Thurs/Fri.

The Scorchers hold a 6-5 historical advantage over the Strikers, including their 6 wicket/10 ball victory over the Strikers in that super low scoring game in Alice Springs 12 days ago.

The bookies have the Scorchers as $1.80 favourites to win the close game, so I’ll be aiming for a balanced lineup, slightly favouring the Scorchers.

The Scorchers regain young paceman Jhye Richardson for injured Joel Paris, while the Strikers have named Kelvin Smith & quick Wes Agar to cover for Travis Head on ODI duty & Peter Siddle, who is being rested.

Likely Batting Orders

Scorchers Strikers
1 Sam Whiteman 1 Alex Carey (wk)
2 Michael Klinger 2 Jake Weatherald
3 Cameron Bancroft (wk) 3 Colin Ingram
4 Hilton Cartwright 4 Jonathan Wells
5 Ashton Turner 5 Jake Lehmann
6 Adam Voges 6 Jono Dean
7 Ashton Agar 7 Michael Neser
8 Tim Bresnan 8 Rashid Khan
9 Jhye Richardson 9 Agar/O’Connor
10 Matthew Kelly 10 Ben Laughlin
11 Mitchell Johnson 11 Billy Stanlake

Bowlers

I’m expecting even ownership amongst this group of quality bowlers tonight.  Rashid Khan could really benefit from the bouncy WACA wicket, and is the standout play – if you can afford him.  I rate Ben Laughlin over Billy Stanlake, but both seem overpriced on Draftstars compared to Khan.

Whoever plays tonight out of Wes Agar & Liam O’Connor (I’m thinking Agar will get the nod) will make a tempting salary saver if you’re playing Carey, Bancroft and/or Ashton Agar.

Mitchell Johnson started BBL|07 with 6 wickets in 3 games, but has since taken just 1 in his last 5 games.  I’m expecting his dry spell to end tonight, with the big fella fired up to farewell his favourite ground.  Matthew Kelly will likely be higher owned than Johnson given his recent form and slightly lower salary, while rising star Jhye Richardson will be full of confidence after grabbing 2 wickets in his international ODI debut last Friday.  Will this be the game where Richardson finally makes his mark on BBL|07?  I wouldn’t be surprised, especially if he gets to bowl against the weak Strikers middle order.

Batsmen

We can group Colin Ingram, Ashton Turner, Michael Klinger & Hilton Cartwright together as tier 1 plays – all having scored 100+ fpts at some point this tournament.  Ingram has the most appeal for me with 2 x 100+ fpt scores in BBL|07, and with the Strikers innings resting on their captains shoulders.  Ashton Turner has the least appeal for me, batting a little too far down the order for his high salary.

Jake Weatherald has had plenty of starts but only gone on once to reward coaches who’ve rostered him, so he falls a little short of being a top tier play for me, as does Jonathan Wells.

I group Adam Voges, Jake Lehman & Jono Dean together – all are cheap, but are total punt plays given how far down the order they all bat.  But, do check final batting orders in case any of these guys get elevated for tonight’s game.

Keepers

It’s a tough choice between Alex Carey, BBL|07’s 2nd highest run scorer, and Cameron Bancroft, who is actually averaging more runs than Carey in his 3 games this tournament.  Bancroft’s $3k salary saving on Draftstars counts a lot in his favour – but it will be tempting to make the decision easy and just play both.

All-Rounders

Ashton Agar seems like an instant must-play after his last game mega fpt score, but those 2 wickets were actually the only wickets Agar has taken at the WACA in BBL|07.  Considering only 5 of 39 wickets taken at this ground in BBL|07 were by spinners, at $19k Agar may be a trap play tonight.

I actually don’t mind Michael Neser‘s 11 wickets in 8 games at 8.8 ER, and the substantial salary saving he offers, rather than Tim Bresnan, who has been wildly expensive – his 10.29 average ER saved by the low scoring Alice Springs game.

On Moneyball I’ll be making my AR play based on team balance – Cartwright if I need another Scorchers batsman, Nesser if I need another Strikers bowler – but won’t be touching Turner.

POD Pick

Hidden away as a third WK option in this game, Sam Whiteman may go largely unnoticed and have low ownership tonight.  It would be super ballsy to completely fade the other WK options, but Whiteman does make a quality Flex play if you’re struggling with the salary cap – and a much better option than Dean or Lehmann for the same cost.


If you’re new to BBL DFS, check out my BBL DFS Strategy Basics article.

You can build lineups for free using the basic version of the Fantasy Insider lineup cruncher here.  Premium subscribers have access to player projections and powerful advanced settings like player exposure levels.

Check out dpwoodford’s How to build BBL lineups video to learn more about the Lineup Cruncher advanced settings.

Good luck with your lineups tonight. Remember to always check final teams – and that it’s all just a bit of fun!

k1w1nOz

@k1w1nOz has been playing DFS since its beginning in Australia, and was lucky enough to jag 1st in a $10k NRL tourney in his 2nd week of playing DFS - which financed his DFS learning curve to become the +ROI GPP player he is today. DFR #2 ranked NRL DFS player k1w1nOz contributes DFS strategy and game preview articles to Fantasy Insider to help you put together winning lineups - and help grow DFS in Australia.

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