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k1w1nOz’s Monday Night BBL Preview: Scorchers v Sixers

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by k1w1nOz

"It's humans playing sport".  That's the dpwoodford quote I have to remind myself of after bizarre games like that one last night.  It was a crazy but highly entertaining game, that left me saying "if only" more than a few times - and a reminder of the brutal nature of BBL DFS.

That said, it was great to see a bunch of Fantasy Insider subscribers top 10 Draftstars $15k GPP with Lineup Cruncher generated teams last night.

Some interesting (possibly useful) stats

It's still early in this seasons tournament, but there are some interesting patterns emerging.  It appears that the introduction of spin bowling in the opening overs is messing with opening batsmen's heads, who have generally been disappointing this tournament.  Meanwhile, teams batting first have had 50% more 30+ scores than teams batting second.  We'll see if these trends continue this season.

30+ Runs by batting position - 1st v 2nd innings
 OrderBat 1st InningBat 2nd Inning

We already know that a balanced lineup is optimal most of the time, but interestingly,  sometimes it pays to stack the team batting or bowling first - but is rarely optimal to stack batsmen or bowlers in the second innings.

Breakdown of GPP winning lineups
Draftstars first 12 games BBL07
BATStacked team batting 1st33%
 Stacked team batting 2nd8%
 Batsmen from both teams58%
BWLStacked team bowling 1st25%
 Stacked team bowling 2nd8%
 Bowlers from both teams67%
 AR *stats inc pre Flex AR games25%

Tonight's Game

Draftstars have dropped their GPP to $10k for tonight's game (despite last nights GPP reaching $12,300 in entries) - while Moneyball have a $5k GPP on offer (last nights GPP on Moneyball reached $6,600).

A warm, clear night is forecasted for tonight's game at the WACA.

The Teams

Despite pre-tournamnet predictions of a downward slide this season, the depleted Scorchers have started BBL07 3-0, largely due to their sensational bowling attack.  In total contrast, the Sixers are sitting at 0-3 and really need to find some form if they have any hope of making the finals this year.

The Scorchers beat the Sixers in the reverse fixture a week or so ago, and hold an overall 8-3 record against them.  Not surprisingly the bookies have the Scorchers as $1.65 favourites in this game.

Likely Batting Orders

Haydan Morton  comes into the Scorchers squad for Ashton Agar, who has been called up on National duty.  Under Local Replacement Player rules, Morton has to be named in their final XI or as 12th man.  Morton is a promising young all-rounder, but has limited experience beyond grade cricket - so I'm expecting Will Bosisto to return to the Scorchers final XI for Agar.

The Sixers will likely be unchanged, and again without skipper Moises Henriques.  I can't see Peter Nevill making their final XI, given the Sixers need for more wicket takers (having only taken 12 wickets in their 3 games) - but there is a chance Mickey Edwards will come in to give the Sixers another fast bowling option.

1Will Bosisto1Jason Roy
2Michael Klinger2Daniel Hughes
3David Willey3Nic Maddinson
4Adam Voges4Jordan Silk
5Hilton Cartwright5Sam Billings (wk)
6Ashton Turner6Johan Botha
7Josh Inglis (wk)7Steve O'Keefe
8Jhye Richardson8Sean Abbott
9Andrew Tye9Ben Dwarshuis
10James Muirhead10Daniel Sams
11Mitchell Johnson11Will Somerville

Six Good Nuts

Bowler – Andrew Tye

Tye’s 12 wickets at 6.9 ER has been a driving force behind the Scorchers title defense this season.  Mitchell Johnson is the better bowler, but you can't under value the junk overs Tye gets to bowl - and the easy wickets he has a habit of collecting.  He's not cheap, but averaging 131 fpts on Draftstars this tournament, you really have to find a way to squeeze him into your lineup.

Batsman – Adam Voges

Unlucky to be run out last game for 24 off 18 balls, Voges has anchored the Scorchers innings in all 3 of their games, averaging a handy 26.  He has an attractive salary on both Draftstars & Moneyball - freeing much needed cash for the stud bowling options.

Keeper – Sam Billings

Wk selection this season has become a real coin toss, and the ordinary keeper options in tonight's game is no different.  Billings is my preferred play, simply because he is much more likely to bat in this game.  Still, I'll no doubt have a little exposure to Inglis - especially on Moneyball, where he is $2k cheaper.

All-Rounder – Ben Dwarshuis

In his first game of BBL07 last Thursday, Dwarshuis showed his value with bat & ball - knocking 21 runs and grabbing 2 wickets against the quality Strikers.  I'm expecting him to be considerably higher owned than the 13% he was last game, but sometimes you just have to eat some chalk.

POD Pick – David Willey

Having accumulated a handy 46 runs and 3 wickets so far this tournament, Willey will be looking to boost those numbers, along with his chances of England selection.  With Agar out, expect Willey to bowl his full compliment of 4 overs and return a quality fpt score - with reasonably low ownership.

Avoid – Jordan Silk (Draftstars), Daniel Hughes (Moneyball)

Don't ask me why Silk is $12k on Draftstars, yet $3k on Moneyball.  Yes, he had a fine knock last game (his first for BBL07) - but previously has only managed one BBL score in double figures.  Of course he could score runs in this game, but I'd rather punt on Hughes or Voges for the same price, or better still, save a few bucks and play Bosisto.

On Moneyball Daniel Hughes has been saddled with an inflated salary.  He's cracked 40+ runs in 4 of his 11 BBL innings, but at $8k I'd rather make room for Tye and/or Johnson for the same cost.  Both bowlers are more capable and more likely to return game winning fpt scores tonight.

If you’re new to BBL DFS, check out my BBL DFS Strategy Basics article.

You can build lineups for free using the basic version of the Fantasy Insider lineup cruncher here.  Premium subscribers have access to player projections and powerful advanced settings like player exposure levels.

Check out dpwoodford’s How to build BBL lineups video to learn more about the Lineup Cruncher advanced settings.

Good luck with your lineups tonight. Remember to always check final teams – and that it’s all just a bit of fun!