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k1w1nOz’s Monday BBL Preview: Hurricanes v Heat

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by k1w1nOz

Tonight's return fixture between the Hurricanes & Heat carries a little extra spice after Alex Ross's controversial obstruction dismissal in the Heat's last ball loss to the Hurricanes last Wednesday.  Much was made of that appeal being "in the spirit of the game", and I suspect the Heat will be out to prove a point tonight.

Draftstars have posted a $12.5k GPP for tonight's game, while Moneyball have dropped their feature GPP to $5k.

Partly cloudy but fine weather is forecast for game time at Blundstone Arena (Bellerive Oval), where the team batting first has averaged 172 runs in BBL|07, while the team batting second has averaged 168 runs.

The Teams

The 5th place Hurricanes are 4-2 in BBL|07, while the 4th place Heat are 4-3.  The winner of this game will move into equal 2nd on the BBL|07 ladder.

The Hurricanes hold a 7-4 historical advantage over the Heat, and are $1.80 favourites to take their winning streak to 5 with a win tonight.

The Hurricanes have named an unchanged squad, while the Heat welcome back Josh Lalor from a fractured thumb, pushing Jack Prestwidge out of their squad.  I'm expecting Doggett to make way for Lalor in the Heat's final XI.

Likely Batting Orders

1Alex Doolan1Sam Heazlett
2D'Arcy Short2Brendon McCullum
3Ben McDermott3Joe Burns
4Matthew Wade (wk)4Alex Ross
5George Bailey5Ben Cutting
6Daniel Christian6Jimmy Peirson (wk)
7Simon Milenko7Marnus Labuschagne
8Jofra Archer8Mark Steketee
9Cameron Boyce9Lalor / Doggett
10Clive Rose10Yasir Shah
11Tymal Mills11Mitchell Swepson

Players to Consider

Bowler – Josh Lalor (Draftstars) / Jofra Archer (Moneyball)

Of the 30 wickets taken at Blundstone so far in BBL|07, 23 (76%) have been via fast bowling.  As attractive as spin weapons Yasir Shah (4wkts/5.62ER) & Cameron Boyce (4wkts/5.63ER) are, we really have to target wicket takers to hit the big bucks - which in this game means favouring the quicks.

Josh Lalor's 8.87 economy rate isn't the greatest, but he is a proven wicket taker, claiming 6 scalps in his 4 games - and he's $2k cheaper than fellow speedster Mark Skeketee (8 wickets in 7 games/8.59ER) on Draftstars.

Jofra Archer and his 9 wickets in 6 games are a lock for me on Moneyball, where he is available for BWL selection for a very reasonable $6,700.  It's worth highlighting that Archer's best fpt score this tournament was at this ground 11 days ago.

Batsman – Brendon McCullum (Draftstars) / D'arcy Short (Moneyball)

I'm loving the revenge narrative for McCullum tonight.  Again the Heat's success will rely heavily on a good innings from their captain, but I was pleasantly surprised with the control McCullum showed last game under the pressure of being without his Bash Bro.  Expect McCullum to have a captains knock tonight.

"Unfortunately" Short bowled last game, which moved him back to AR status on Draftstars, but he is still available for BAT selection on Moneyball.  Short has continued to prove he is BBL|07's form batsmen, leading the way with 122 off 69 balls in the Hurricanes win over the Heat a few days ago.  Even at $8k, he is still bargain priced and a lock in my lineup on Moneyball.

Keeper – Jimmy Peirson (Draftstars) / Matthew Wade (Moneyball)

Wade's 20 run average this tournament is slightly better than Jimmy Peirsons 15 run average, but because he is more likely to see more time at the crease than Peirson, Wade is the better play of the two.

It's easy to fit Wade under the salary cap on Moneyball, but on Draftstars where he is nearly $3k more than Peirson, it may make more sense to give up a few fpts at WK and spent up at BAT/BWL/AR.

Another approach to choosing between these 2 similar options is to make your WK decision last, using it as a final check of your desired lineup/team balance - depending on your BAT & AR selections (eg avoid playing a 3rd batsmen from the same team on Draftstars).

All-Rounder – Jofra Archer (Draftstars) / Ben Cutting (Moneyball)

Usman Khawaja reminded us a couple of nights ago of how easily a batsmen can go from the penthouse to the outhouse - and how dangerous it is to invest 1/4 of your salary cap on just one player.

If you're entering multiple lineups you'll still want high exposure to D'Arcy Short,  but if you're just playing one lineup on Draftstars, Archer is the safer play.  It is possible to play both of them, but requires too much compromise elsewhere imo.

Ben Cutting was my AR play tip on Moneyball when these teams met last Wednesday, and he came good for coaches who rostered him, producing 31 fpts compared to 11 fpts from Dan Christian.  So what if Cutting's fpts came from the ball, not off the bat like I predicted - a win is a win, right?

POD Pick - fade D'Arcy Short / play Alex Doolan

Short will rightly be super high owned in this game, especially on Moneyball.  If you're looking for a point-of-difference in your lineup, just fade Short and hope he goes cheaply.  If you're brave enough to fade Short, his opening partner Alex Doolan makes an ideal pivot play who will likely have lowish ownership, given his recent form.

Avoid – George Bailey

Dear George,
You've been my POD play for a few games now, but you've done nothing mate!  Your 7 run average just doesn't cut it, especially with guys like Doolan & Ross similarly priced or cheaper, so you're out of my lineup.  Don't you dare score any runs tonight, ok?
Thanks for your understanding.  k1w1nOz

If you’re new to BBL DFS, check out my BBL DFS Strategy Basics article.

You can build lineups for free using the basic version of the Fantasy Insider lineup cruncher here.  Premium subscribers have access to player projections and powerful advanced settings like player exposure levels.

Check out dpwoodford’s How to build BBL lineups video to learn more about the Lineup Cruncher advanced settings.

Good luck with your lineups tonight. Remember to always check final teams – and that it’s all just a bit of fun!