It's business time for the last 4 teams standing in BBL|07 - leaving just 3 more chances for us to claim DFS glory this season. The Scorchers are hot favourites to win tonight's semi, but will a stacked lineup payoff? Which studs are worth paying up for? Will the new stadium run out of pies again?
It's been a highly entertaining tournament, and tonight's sudden death game should be another beauty. Let's check out the info to consider when building your lineups.
- Business Time.
Last Sunday's Aus v Eng ODI was the first game played at Optus Stadium. All 20 wickets fell in that game, of which 13 were taken by quick's, 5 off spin bowling, with 2 run out's.
Although a very small sample size, it looks like the new Perth wicket will continue the WACA's tradition of favouring seamers - so exercise caution playing spinners in tonight's game.
The 8-2 Scorchers finished BBL|07 on top of the ladder with 3 wins on the trot, while the 5-5 Hurricanes limped into the semi's after losing their last 3 games.
Including their narrow defeat of the Hurricanes with 4 balls to spare a couple of weeks ago at the WACA, the Scorchers hold a 6-2 historical advantage over the 'canes.
Understandably the bookies have the Scorchers as $1.55 favourites to win this game - and I'm expecting the men in orange to feature heavily in winning lineups tonight.
The Scorchers have lost Ashton Agar to the national T20 side, but have received a massive boost with both Shaun & Mitch Marsh now expected to play. Shaun will likely open the batting at the expense of Sam Whiteman, while Mitch will bat around 4 or 5 depending on game flow.
The loss of Agar means the Scorchers enter this match without a specialist spinner (assuming uncapped spinner Haydan Morton isn't named), and with Ashton Turner still carrying a crook shoulder, we could see a couple of overs of left-arm spin from skipper Adam Voges.
The Hurricanes will be without star batsman D'Arcy Short due to national T20 call-up, but welcome back Australian keeper Tim Payne, with rookie quick Riley Meredith brought into their squad at the expense of Tymal Mills.
The loss of Short and his handy couple of overs of bowling complicates the Hurricanes final XI selection. With Mills being "rested" I can see Tom Rogers coming in to make up the overs, or Nathan Reardon & Simon Milenko being called on for 4 overs. Alex Doolan could return to open the batting, but would mean sacrificing Reardon or Milenko as bowling options, so we'll likely see Tim Payne open tonight. Then again, if Meredith is named to play it would give the Hurricanes the chance to play a genuine batsmen in Doolan instead of having a dollar each way on Reardon or Milenko. My head hurts.
Possible Batting Orders
|1||Shaun Marsh||1||Matthew Wade|
|2||Michael Klinger||2||Tim Payne (wk)|
|3||Cameron Bancroft (wk)||3||Ben McDermott|
|4||Mitch Marsh||4||George Bailey|
|5||Hilton Cartwright||5||Daniel Christian|
|6||Ashton Turner||6||Simon Milenko|
|7||Adam Voges||7||Nathan Reardon|
|8||Tim Bresnan||8||Jofra Archer|
|9||Jhye Richardson||9||Tom Rogers|
|10||Matthew Kelly||10||Cameron Boyce|
|11||Mitchell Johnson||11||Clive Rose|
Players to Consider
The coin toss and final XI's will again dictate lineup construction tonight. If the Hurricanes bat first I'll be exercising extreme caution playing the Scorchers middle order, while part-time bowlers will have increased appeal if either team opts to stack batsmen.
Bowler – Matthew Kelly
The heart says Johnson, but the head says Kelly and his 7 wickets in 4 games at a handy 6.6 ER. Johnson has an impressive 5.86 ER but just hasn't had the luck with him, going wicketless in 4 games straight. Jhye Richardson has improved with each game and is a solid play, but remains dangerously expensive, averaging 9.04 ER.
With Jofra Archer an AR on Draftstars, the rest of the Hurricanes bowling options can be described as ordinary at best. Tom Rogers was actually the best of these bowlers when these teams last met, with 41 fpts on Draftstars, while Boyce & Rose returned only 1 & 7 fpts respectively.
Batsman – Michael Klinger
If you're looking for a batsman who has demonstrated the ability to deliver a huge score this tournament, Klinger is your man, with a BBL|07 ceiling of 118 fpts on Draftstars. I'll have some shares in Shaun Marsh, but he's no must-have for me (see Caution below). We should see a reasonable return on investment from Hilton Cartwright, but I'm not expecting much (if anything) from Ashton Turner & Adam Voges batting so low in the Scorchers order.
It's worth noting that while Voges has next to no chance of batting, he could be considered as a cheap bowling option that might get to bowl a couple of overs - just hope they are cheap overs if you play him.
Ben McDermott is the standout Hurricanes BAT option for me. George Bailey has shown he can still be counted on for a reasonable score, but he doesn't seem to have the stamina to post a huge score like McDermott can. Nathan Reardon presents as a quality value play given he's likely to get some time at the crease - and maybe even bowl an over or two.
Keeper – Cameron Bancroft
Bancroft has delivered big time in 3 of his 4 games for coaches who rostered him, including 54 off 36 against the Hurricanes a few weeks ago. He is the standout elite play for me in this game. Matthew Wade presents as the best value option on the slate, while Tim Paine is the sly POD play (see below).
All-Rounder – Mitch Marsh
Marsh comes into this game in fine form with scores of 36, 55, 32 & 13 in the recent ODI series, along with grabbing 3 wickets in his 16 overs of bowling. There is a lot to like about Marsh's Big Bash stat's - he's scored more than 30 runs in 8 of his last 11 games for the Scorchers. Given he will likely bowl 2 or 3 overs tonight just adds to his appeal for me. Jofra Archer & Dan Christian also make fine plays, especially if you've stacked Scorchers bowlers. I lean towards Christian's proven ability to score with bat & ball.
POD Pick – Tim Payne
The high calibre of players in all positions should see relatively even ownership tonight, but the fact that Payne has no BBL|07 stats for coaches to easily compare to, we may find Payne is the forgotten man. Having scored 31 no, 25 no & 34 batting at 7 in the recent ODI series, don't be surprised if Payne puts on a big score batting at the top of the Hurricanes order. Tim Bresnan & Simon Milenko will likely have lowish ownership too, but I have no interest in either.
Caution - Shaun Marsh
If you're entering multiple lineups tonight you'll definitely need some exposure to Shaun Marsh, but lets not forget that his is coming back from injury - and he has only played 10 games over the last 3 seasons for the Scorchers, in which he scored over 30 runs just 3 times. He also had knocks of 4, 8, 7, 4, 8 & 8 in those 10 games, so he's no lock for me.
Avoid – Ashton Turner
Unless you are expecting a massive Scorchers batting collapse, Turner will have limited time at the crease, if any. He could bat as low as 6 behind a quality lineup, and given he won't bowl, coaches who roster Turner tonight run a high risk of a doughnut in return.
If you’re only just jumping on the BBL DFS train, check out my BBL DFS Strategy Basics article to get you started.
You can build lineups for free using the basic version of the Fantasy Insider lineup cruncher here. Premium subscribers have access to player projections and powerful advanced settings like player exposure levels.
Check out dpwoodford’s How to build BBL lineups video to learn more about the Lineup Cruncher advanced settings.
Good luck with your lineups tonight. Remember to always check final teams – and that it’s all just a bit of fun!