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How to use Fantasy Insider for Big Bash

Posted Thu 14 December by Darryl Woodford

Big Bash starts in just over 24 hours and there is some decent money waiting in the docks if you know how to tackle the high variance that naturally comes with the format. Let’s talk about what we’ll be offering for Big Bash this season, and more importantly, how we suggest you use the tools to get the most out of your subscription and the platforms.

Projections

To be completely transparent, Big Bash is a very difficult tournament to offer the Lineup Cruncher for. Compounded by the scoring systems (personally I was a big fan of the Top8 scoring system a couple of years ago, while Draftstars shortened teams and Strike Rate scoring greatly increase unpredictability), and the inherent variance in the format, our margin of error is going to be significantly bigger than for sports like NBA and AFL. An NBA player projected for 30 might have 85% confidence intervals of something like 18-42, while a Big Bash player projected for 50 might have 85% confidence intervals closer to 8-92. This is particularly notable for batsman-only, whose chance of getting a duck / scoring only a few points is pretty high.

Secondly, this is all compounded by the late confirmation of teams, and the fact that batting orders are subject to change. The graph below shows the link between batting order position and batting fantasy points scored under the Draftstars system, and so you can see the difference between a batsman opening or coming in at 5/6 is pretty significant — it’s basically a question of opportunity. The need to recalibrate projections based on batting order, and on expected overs bowled / premium overs bowled (with premium being the last couple of overs when wickets flow), means that projections published the day before will always be limited in their value. We are attempting to automate the publication of post-lineup projections, but that will depend on availability of information and how early the teams are published, so we do not guarantee those updates will be available.

Lineup Cruncher Tools

That said, there is still a lot of value available to our Premium users for Big Bash. Projections are going to be significantly better than using the average of the last 5 games, notwithstanding the above. But the real value comes in the tools. The ability to shortlist players (say those in the top 4 of the batting order and those expected to bowl max/premium overs), and then build a set (2-40) number of lineups from just those players – and with a specified number of unique players per lineup – is invaluable.

Similarly, the ability to set global / individual player maximum exposure levels is key to Big Bash — as k1w1noz mentioned in his strategy post, only 1-2 players can really score big batting fantasy points per innings, but those players are pretty hard to predict. Building 10 lineups, with a maximum of 40% exposure to an individual player, will give you a much more diverse set of lineups.

Ultimately, you could do most of this manually, but it would take hours. If you’re trying to put in your lineups in the 30 minutes between coin toss / teams announcement and the first ball, the Premium tools will give you a big advantage on the competition. Read more about these advantages here.

Strategy

For me, Big Bash is a sport that is more about fun than profit. With our tools, and a multi entry strategy, you probably have a 10-15% long-term profit rate, but the problem is that with the shortness of the season and the variance of the sport, it might take you years to actually realise that profit, with 1-2 big winning years, 6-7 breakeven, and 1-2 big losing years in there. If you don’t have the bankroll to multi-enter the $15, I’d probably recommend playing the $2 game and just have fun.

Whichever way you play Big Bash, good luck, and let us know if there’s anything you’d like to see us cover on FI as we go.

Resources

Now you’re up to date with Big Bash premium, here’s where to get started with your research:

K1w1n0z’s BBL DFS Basic Strategies

Fantasy Insider BBL Lineup Cruncher 

Fantasy Insider BBL Smart Lineups tool

Draftstars team-by-team preview

Darryl Woodford

Darryl is the guy behind the DFS username dpwoodford. Co-founder of Fantasy Insider, he has over 15 years experience in building models for betting on sporting events, and was one of the early leaders in Australian DFS.

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