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BBL08 Game 23: Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes

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"There is enough middle order value tonight to fully fade the superstar openers and on a pitch that the bowlers have absolutely loved, tonight is all about the bowler seamer-stack."

The Recap

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong last night in Adelaide with Carey and Silk both going for 1 and Colin Ingram making woefully poor bowling change decisions late in the game. Think the strategy was bang on though, it just didn’t fall our way last night. Onto Marvel Stadium tonight where literally anything could happen on a pitch likely to favour the bowlers again.

Likely XI’s

Game 23: Renegades v Hurricanes @ Marvel Stadium

Renegades –Finch, Harvey, White, Harper, Cooper, Nabi, Christian, Wildermuth, Boyce, Richardson, Usman Khan, (Webster, Holland)

  • Finch is back and will open with Harvey. Webster the likely man to miss as I doubt Cooper will be dropped after captaining the side. Christian/Nabi to share the fifth bowling option. Harper could bat anywhere from #3-#8 tonight. Expect he comes in after the bottom lip of Cam White.


Hurricanes – Short, Wade, Doolan, McDermott, Bailey, Milenko, Faulkner, Botha, Archer, Rose, Meredith (Moody, Doran)

  • Again. Be aware that this middle order could see some reshuffling in a blowout scenario. It’s unlikely tonight but at some stage, they will want to get some decent batting into Milenko and Faulkner.


Selection Committee

Strategy tonight is simple, there will be regular wickets on this deck so take as many bowlers as you can. There is enough middle order value tonight to fully fade the superstar openers and on a pitch that the bowlers have absolutely loved, tonight is all about the bowler seamer-stack.


Selection

James Faulkner ($17,600): I expect Faulks to be severely under-owned tonight given his price hike and the availability of Short and Finch. Taking either of those top order batsmen make it super hard to get to Faulkner at his price tag. Will open and close the bowling innings on a pitch that could not suit him more and gives us a little bit of batting cover given our team is geared for the Hurricanes top order to fail tonight.

Jack Wildermuth ($13,500): Let the seamer-stack continue! In 7 overs at Marvel, this season Wildermuth is 4/35 with a two-game average of 85 fantasy points. Sure the Canes top order is better than Perth and the Sixers were in those games but we are picking on pitch tonight and Jacky boy has loved bowling on this deck. Like Faulkner, gives us some batting coverage down the list, he might see 10-15 balls at the end of the innings and can clear the rope.

Mohammad Nabi ($13,800): This is a real left-field selection but I’m taking Nabi for his batting tonight. His unorthodox approach could be a boon on a tough pitch. Expect him to go very under-owned (and deservedly so, he has bowled horribly) and am not expecting more than two overs with the ball. But a quick-fire 35-40 runs in the middle stages of their innings from Nabi at sub 20% could really set me up tonight.

Ben McDermott ($12,300): I just can’t leave this guy out. Last night showed how us what happens when you leave class out of your side – Denly finally dropped a decent score – and McDermott has the power hitting to break a slate at sub 20% ownership. Fields in the hot zones as well which is important in a game with lots of mishits. A Christian/Milenko option instead of McDermott/Nabi would be my lineup in a second side.

Usman Khan ($14,600): Usman will be an absolute monster tonight. Averaging 78pts in two games at this venue – 8 overs 3/34! That’s 4.25/over in 8 overs. If he maintains that and picks up another few poles it will be a very handy fantasy ton for Usman tonight.

Kane Richardson ($12,400): Talk about a track specialist. I never normally roster Richardson but at Marvel so far this season his bowling reads like McGrath! 6/45 off 8 overs at a tick over 5.6/over. Frightening. He has been getting some advantage from Usman Khan’s tight bowling so rostering them both together makes a ton of sense here.

Jofra Archer ($15,300): Despite averaging just 24pts this season so far his salary has remained high which hopefully should keep people away from him tonight. His best is 120+ territory and this deck will not give him a better chance.


Final Thought

20 overs of pace bowling on a deck that favours the quicks, it feels like a solid strategy. Nabi and McDermott are both slight punts that run a little away from the game script but I think with so many people likely to take a bevy of pace bowling, those two guys could take us right to the top.


BBL08 Balance

Games: 22

Spend: $330

Win: $368.88

Profit: +$38.88