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BBL08 Game 18: Melbourne Renegades v Adelaide Strikers

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"I'm taking class in a very specific team-stack here because I can see the Adelaide Strikers bowling first whatever happens..."

The Recap

A nice cash last night brings us back very close to the black for the season despite frightfully bad luck with Fawad Ahmed running out anyone, let alone our 18% owned Hilton Cartwright who had 10 overs to bat. Could have gone big last night but not to be.

Likely XI’s

Game 18 @ Simonds Stadium, Geelong

Renegades – Harvey, Harper, White, Cooper, Nabi, Christian, Webster, Wildermuth, Boyce, Richardson, Usman Khan, (Mennie, Holland)

  • Mennie unlikely to play. Expect an unchanged lineup and unchanged order.

Strikers - Carey, Weatherald, Short, Ingram, Wells, Lehman, Neser, Valente, Khan, Laughlin, Stanlake (O’Connor, Agar)

  • Siddle out. At this stage, Khan is playing but could always be a late out (family reasons). Valente coming back in is the obvious choice but don't be surprised to see O'Connor get a run.

Selection Committee

Bit of unknown wicket which makes this game a little tricky. The lone T20I (AUS v Sri Lanka) that was played there in 2017 was a bit of a road with 350+ scored and almost zero economy bonuses to speak of. Spinners did fare better than the pacemen but not by much.

Still, that was 18 months ago and these days Aussie pitches are a bit of a coin flip. I'm taking class in a very specific team-stack here because I can see the Strikers bowling first whatever happens.


Jake Weatherald ($14,200): I’m sticking to my man. He has been dismissed cheaply twice but both were pretty bad luck. He is a very classy player and it’s been proven so far this season (Ingram, Ferguson) that if you just stick to the class they will eventually go big. Love his low ownership and hopefully, some recency bias helps keep it really low again.

Cameron White ($10,600): Speaking of class who has got unlucky, Whitey is in such good touch his leading edge almost cleared a very deep mid wicket last start. Going to get every chance to dominate this game. Absolutely due and a lot of coaches are going to be worried about both his average as well as his ability to survive Rashid Khan.

Dan Christian ($17,000): Never out of the game, should get 1-2 overs with the ball and with Khan in the side that Renegades middle order could collapse fairly cheaply which exposes Christian to plenty of overs in the middle. Coming off his lowest score for the season (31pts) makes me want him even more with the recency bias that we have seen does impact ownerships.

Jono Wells ($9,200): My ultimate pod play tonight. Wells will be sub 15% and should see a bit of time here at the crease. My team is built on Usman Khan taking a wicket or two early (hopefully Carey!) which brings Wells right into 7-8 overs at the crease. Really like Wells here, I'll be about 4-5x the field.

Rashid Khan ($21,100): Forget the narrative here (Khan’s father passed away this week), if Khan plays he is a very good chance to do what he did to the Renegades a week ago which is dominate them. 2/13 off 4 overs on a batting-friendly Adelaide pitch.

Usman Khan ($14,600): Scored a big duck egg last time these two sides met which has kept his average to 50pts for the season. Love him in this game. Was unlucky last-start. Gets powerplay overs and death overs on a mystery deck and should be under-owned. Straight in.

Ben Laughlin ($10,800): Laughlin has a 100pt game in him at some stage this season and I will be on him when he nails it. Renegades have a long tail, after Christian are the type of players who Laughlin can outfox. A tail mop is always a chance with Benny and I like a catch/runout too.

Final Thought

Super specific game script this one. Want Usman Khan to get a few wickets to activate Wells and need White to survive the Rash and Laughlin to mop the Gades tail after Christian – as I said, very specific!

BBL08 Balance

Games: 17

Spend: $255

Win: $247.66

Profit: -$7.34