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BBL Game 24: Sydney Thunder v Brisbane Heat

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"Make sure you are watching the weather tonight because nailing your exposures to Thunder and Heat players in a reduced overs game gives you a huge advantage over the field."

The Recap

It was right there for the taking, but nothing went right for us in the second innings including globes from Faulkner and Archer. Just snuck into a min cash thanks to a last-ball six from Nabi but what could have been. Archer just made my sh*t list and deadest Wade, but a slip in early!

Likely XI’s

Game 24: Sydney Thunder v Brisbane Heat @ Spotless Stadium.

Thunder – Watson, Buttler, Ferguson, Root, Sangha, Sams, Green, Sandhu, Cook Rainbird, Ahmed (Nair, McAndrew)

  • Expect the side to be unchanged despite a last-start loss. Nair always a chance to play on the Spotless deck but Cook has been bowling well and I doubt they will go in with only one seamer so hard to see it.

 

Heat – McCullum, Bryant, Lynn, Burns, Pierson, Cutting, Labuschagne, Pattinson, Mujeeb, Swepson, Lalor (Doggett, Renshaw)

  • Swepson comes back in for Doggett you’d think on what is a turning wicket in Sydney. Renshaw also a chance to come out for Labuschagne who can bowl a few leg breaks and can bat behind Cutting #7. Having 3 spin and 3 pace options is a good way to approach Spotless.


Selection Committee

Remember our golden rule – Ahmed is Spotless. I can see a lot of the field on Lynn tonight. At sub 20k he is cheap enough to fit into any lineup. I’m fading the superstar tonight, it’s make or break but he just doesn’t play spin as well and if 65% of the field is on him and he fails, this side looks set for a solid cash. Taking 12 overs of Thunder spin is never a bad option on this deck, throw in Mujeeb and some Thunder top order power hitting against Patto/Lalor and voila, we’ve got a team.

Selection

Jos Buttler ($18,100): Should be extremely highly owned but he is averaging 89pts at this venue from two games so you can understand why. I don’t see the Heat openers as bowlers who will trouble Buttler too much so I expect he gets into his innings here. Openers and stroke makers like Buttler can always go cheaply but he is in form against a lesser bowling unit on a track he likes.

Callum Ferguson ($11,000): Burnt us badly last start with a duck but how can you fade a player with such class and such exposure.  Averaging 44 fantasy points from two games here at Spotless. I’ll take that as a floor and hope he goes big.

Joe Burns ($11,800): Did not like seeing Burns come in a little lower last start but the positive for me is the possibility of Renshaw not playing tonight. That takes Burns’ exposure up a little for mine but watch for final teams. Burns has the class he just hasn’t got the runs as yet but this lineup is built on Lynn failing which means Burns gets every chance to take this team right to the pointy end at likely very low ownership.

Chris Green ($15,300): Hasn’t had huge games at Spotless (38pts and 47pts) but hasn’t failed either. Big risk play because he will be one that the Heat try and target but with that risk comes opportunity at what should be pretty low ownership.

Fawad Ahmed ($15,100): Just a must on his home deck at Spotless. Yes, he could get smashed for an over by any one of the Heat top order but he is averaging 84pts in two games at home and he just bowls so well on this deck. Hoping he gets Lynn!

Mujeeb Ur Rahman ($16,000): Will absolutely love this pitch. Taking spinners on the Spotless deck is always a good play.

Jono Cook ($10,200): Will open the bowling which I like given the weather. Averaging 84pts in two games at Spotless and is cheap. Eat the chalk.


Final Thought

One thing we have not spoken about tonight is the prospect of weather limiting play. If there is rain about, taking opening bowlers and top order batsman is absolutely key. Watching the radar 30mins prior to lockout is also crucial because more often than not one team gets to bat most of their innings – making sure you have heaps of exposure whilst also ensuring you have players in the game if rain reduces play is tricky but doable. Burns, for example, is kind of out of play if rain looks likely during the Heat batting.


BBL08 Balance

Games: 23

Spend: $345

Win: $394.55

Profit: +$49.55