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What you should be wary of going into NFL DFS this weekend

Posted Thu 26 October by Darryl Woodford

There’s an even spread of players across the salary tiers this week, which makes settling on a lineup pretty challenging. When you get a week like this where there are 7-10 more or less equivalent options at each position, and most of them are fairly cheap on the $/pt scale, I think the net effect is to turn the contest into a bit of a lottery, while also favouring the significant multi-entry players (50+ lineups). For that reason, I doubt I’ll be putting in many entries this weekend.

But, if you want to play, we run through some of the better options for this weekend, the start of the NBA season, and Moneyball’s new Horse Racing DFS game on this week’s Woot & Wye podcast…

NFL Crib Notes

This week we have a $20k at Draftstars, and are down to $8k at Moneyball.

  • QB: Beathard (13.9 @ $8k), Ryan (19.5), Brady (20.8), Prescott (19.7) and Brees (19.3) are the favoured players this week, but the Cruncher sees a lot of more-or-less equal plays; you’ll often see 6 or 7 different quarterbacks in a 10-lineup crunch. For me, the big decision is if you want to spend at QB this week or elsewhere, and that will decide if you go Beathard or one of the premiums. At Moneyball I favour Cousins (18.6), but Smith (18.5) & Brees are also decent options.
  • RB: Running Backs have let me down the last few weeks, but at DS it’s Howard (15.9), Gore (12.3), and Freeman (17.1) at the top of the list. Most of the premiums are bad $/pt plays, but you could make the argument with going for some of them (McCoy/Ingram) just for the guaranteed pts, and saving money at WR. At MB, Howard is still one of the best options, but Elliot (18.4) and Mccoy (17.3) are more viable premium plays.
  • WR: Yaaaawn — it’s Julio (19.4). Otherwise, Evans (16.7), Cooks (15), Thomas (16.3), Baldwin (14.8) are at the head of a pretty tightly packed field. Mike Thomas (12.5) and Jarvis Landry (12.3) look the best of the different options at MB.
  • TE: Rudolph (11.4) is very cheap, whilst Kelce (14.9) is probably the best premium option at DS. At Moneyball, Rudolph & Henry (9.2) look the best of the bunch.
  • DEF: The Bears showed the importance of varying your defences last week. This time around, it’s the Vikings and Falcons at Draftstars, and the Vikings & Chargers at Moneyball.

 

For more information on Fantasy Insider for NFL head over here. Or try the NFL Lineup Cruncher to get started now for free.

Darryl Woodford

Darryl is the guy behind the DFS username dpwoodford. Co-founder of Fantasy Insider, he has over 15 years experience in building models for betting on sporting events, and was one of the early leaders in Australian DFS.

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