With week 1 of NFL in the books, there’s more data to analyse — that always makes our machines happy! There’s also some tasty games to target this weekend, with Patriots/Saints and Packers/Falcons in particular giving us a multitude of stacking options. On the podcast, we discuss the inter-game stack as an option, e.g. Brady/Cooks + Ted Ginn, or Ryan/Jones + Jordy Nelson — the logic being if there’s a high scoring back-and-forth shootout, the game plan will inevitably see lots of scoring opportunities for both sets of receivers. Enjoy the podcast, and we’ll include some crib notes below on our top picks for this week.
NFL Crib Notes
- QB: Lots of stacking options with Ryan (21.2) & Rodgers (21.3). Close game, so potential of OT. Bortles a pick from the blue, worthy of a couple of lineups. Brady is in the top half of the value charts at DS; you don’t see that a lot. Woot & Wye guys like the Rivers/Allen stack.. but probably one I’d do only with >10 lineups.
- RB: Jacquizz Rodgers way too cheap at DS (11.5, $613/pt) — great for managing your exposure — will feature a lot at DS, not at MB. Freeman (17.5) and Lynch (14.3) decent value, as is Elliot (18). Gurley (16) still an OK play, as are Hunt (15.7), Montgomery (13.8) and West (12.8). Woot & Wye guys strong on White (9.9), who’s a pass-catching back and so an exception to my general philosophy against stacking WR/QB/RB.
- WR: We tried Ryan/Jones last week and it didn’t work, but I wouldn’t hesitate to try again. Will depend a lot on the QB strategy you adopt. For value, Cooks (16.1), Adams (13.7), Nelson (17.3) all projected well assuming high scoring games. Baldwin (16) and Ted Ginn (12.9) also options. In cash games, Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyreek Hill & Jeremy Maclin all are priced OK and unlikely to blow a hole in your score.
- TE: Wow do Tight Ends suck this year. Moneyball have added it to the FLEX, but can’t see why anyone would use one. They’re also expensive, every reasonable option is around $830-1000/pt. The shortlist goes a bit like this: James (7.8), Reed (13.3), Olsen (12.2), Cook (9.2), Gresham (6.9) and Fleener (9.8) for value, Kelce/Graham/Gronk if you’re playing cash and want a bit more safety. Just have to bite the bullet and spend here.
- DEF: For me, DEFs are such a random element of the DFS lineup. Last week the elite option didn’t work, this week it’s probably the Ravens. Steelers/Seahawks/Arizona/Cincinnati are all viable at DS. Ravens/Cardinals/Steelers/Raiders at MB. Just manage your risk, if one defence screws up you don’t want it to ruin all your lineups.
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