It’s Thanksgiving week, so we got an early start on this weeks preparation ! There’s a few interesting plays around this week making a stars and scrubs approach pretty attractive, and a few injuries to keep an eye on. We touch on those, and talk a little bit about the process of projecting player performance for DFS from Vegas lines & totals in this week’s podcast. Crib notes for the week including some of the top FI plays are below.
NFL CRIB NOTES
- QB: Brady (23.2), Dalton (16), Wentz (20.5), Wilson (21.4), and Mariota (18.4) are the premium options at Draftstars I think, and all of them have some great stacking options. At Moneyball, it’s Ryan (20.1), Brady (23.2), Wilson (21.4), and Smith (19.1). I don’t see too much reason to go cheap at QB this week, given the strong combinations possible, but Wye likes Jacoby Brissett who we project at 16.2. I think he could go either way, but shouldn’t be too high owned, and may not be a bad play (and take a look at our TE picks for an interesting companion play).
- RB: Morris (12.3) and Demarco Murray (12.4) are strong value plays, and give you the option to save some money at Draftstars, while Gordon (17.9) and Ingram (16.9) are very promising premium plays. McCoy, Bell, Gurley and Gore are also viable plays that will do you know harm, and give you a decent shortlist for multi-entry play. Todd Gurley (19.2), Bell (20.1), and Kareem Hunt (16.6) are my top options at Moneyball, with Gore (10.9) and Lamar Miller (12.7) offering decent value and salary relief. Wye liked Alvin Kamara as an alternative to Ingram, and we have the two pretty close (16.9 vs 16.5). The salary difference is massive at Draftstars, so I’d be playing Kamara at Moneyball if you like him.
- WR: Wye liked Tevin Coleman at RB, but I much prefer the WR Corey Coleman (11.4) as a value play this week. Julio Jones (18), A.J. Green (17.6), Doug Baldwin (16.3) and Brandin Cooks (16.4) are all strong plays, and give you lots of QB/WR1 pairings to consider when you’re stacking. Kupp (9.5) and Lockett (8.6) are cheapies at Moneyball, with Julio Jones the best of the premium options, and I think Marvin Jones is a viable play. Wye likes Alshon Jeffery (11.1 MB, 13.1 DS) in a revenge game, though I’ve heard/read about that revenge game several times this week, so if enough people buy in he’ll be more highly owned than he should be.
- TE: It’s all about Gronk (15.6) on the cruncher, who I can see having a great game against the Dolphins — it’s not often he has two terrible games in a row. Engram at 13.9 is also a strong play (and one of our Smart Lineups actually has him as a FLEX in a lineup w/ Gronk), as is Ertz (13.8), Graham (11.9), and Kelce (14.3). Hunter Henry is a good cheapie at 8.6, as is Doyle (9.2) who is a great stacking option if you go with Wye’s Jacoby pick. It’s Gronk and Delanie Walker at Moneyball. Wye likes the Reed/Davis option going up against the Giants. For me, I’d rather Reed doesn’t play and then I might load up on Davis, but if Reed plays, there’s a bit too much risk to play either.
- DEF: Some crazy scoring again last week. This week the Jags are the premium play, and I’m sure they’ll be highly owned. Other options at Draftstars are the Bengals (2x), Steelers & Falcons at DS, while the Jags are quite a bit better than the next best option at Moneyball, but if you do want to spread the risk I wouldn’t argue against the Steelers or Bengals. Wye likes the Patriots, but it’s a fairly high totalled game (even allowing for the Pats being 17 point favourites). If the Pats do win big, you risk them doing lots of clock-running decreasing the chance of defensive INT’s/Fumble recoveries etc, and if they don’t win big you figure they’ll give up 2-3 TD.