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NFL DFS Down Under Week 5: And then there was NFL…

Posted Thu 05 October by Darryl Woodford

With only the NFL to occupy our DFS minds this weekend, you’ll want to listen to this week’s Woot & Wye podcast, where we discuss the injuries that ruined our Week 4’s, some obvious (and not so obvious) plays for Week 5, and some ‘secret’ cruncher features that you’ll not want to miss…

NFL Crib Notes

As mentioned, besides NBA preseason there’s only NFL to play this weekend, and we have another $10k at Moneyball and $25k at Draftstars up for grabs in the main events. We’re busy adding some new features to the site for NBA, and so I’ll likely go fairly light this weekend, but here are some of the players I like:

  • QB: There’s a few players with fairly similar value profiles at Draftstars this week, and I’d be picking from Cam Newton (17.6), Aaron Rodgers (21.2), Joe Flacco (14.2 and only $8350), Matthew Stafford (18.2), Jacoby Brissett (16.2) and Dak Prescott (19.4) at DS, largely dependent on which wide receivers I prefer. I think Dak Prescott is by far the best value play at Moneyball, so if you’re playing both sites you’ll want to use him there and probably cut back at Draftstars. Otherwise, I also don’t mind Jameis Winston (18.8, $7400) and Aaron Rodgers at Moneyball.
  • RB:  Ezekiel Elliott (20.4) is best of the premiums at Draftstars, with Kareem Hunt (17.9), Leveon Bell (17.7) and Todd Gurley (17.5) all projected in the high 17s, but more expensive. That said, if you’re multi-entering you but might want to mix and match so you’re not screwed if one of them goes off, or gets injured (after last week’s disaster!). Jordan Howard (15.3), Thomas Rawls (8.6, @ $6000), Aaron Jones – GB (9, $6000), Latavius Murray (13.8) and Frank Gore (12.2) are the others worth looking at on Draftstars. Prices are closer at Moneyball, with Todd Gurley (15.9), LeSean McCoy (8200), Ezekiel Elliott (19) and LeVeon Bell (15.9) all premium options, though again I think Latavius Murray (11, 5000) is the best value option. Doug Martin is coming back and could go off, but with Rodgers & Sims on the roster we’re yet to really know how playing time will be shared?
  • WR: There’s no real standout plays at WR this week for my money. Most of the good stacking options also work stand-alone, and if you save money at QB or RB, you can fit most of them in. So for me, it’s picking from Ty Hilton (15.1), Jordy Nelson (17.7), Brandin Cooks (14.4), and DaVante Adams (13.1 — if he plays, ESPN say he will as of the time we recorded the pod). At Moneyball, Mike Evans (14.3), Larry Fitzgerald (11.9) and Ty Hilton (12.6) are my preferred options.
  • TE: It always seems I’m sharing a not-so-shortlist at TE, and this week is no different. Eric Ebron (9.2), Kyle Rudolph (9.4), Delanie Walker (11.9) are my preferred options at Draftstars, with Evan Engram (7.9), Travis Kelce (10.6), Zach Ertz (10.1), Delanie Walker (9.6), Charles Clay (7.8), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (6.8) all viable at MoneyBall. For me, the Gronk/Graham type players are still too expensive to be sensible options, though of course they could go off at any time. Graham is perhaps priced more on rep than recent form as he still hasn’t really settled with Wilson. Charles Clay is very expensive on DS this week (coming in at $1255/pt); if you like him, I’d suggest using him at Moneyball.
  • DEF: Last week I said that “At 4500 at Moneyball, I could be talked into playing the Colts”, and they came through with 10 points. I mentioned on the podcast I think players underrate the importance of ‘positive scoring’ at defence, as the Colts points came from Interceptions and Sacks, so someone like the Colts is a good POD. This week, I like the Texans (7.9), Rams (6.7), Chiefs (8.3), Chargers (7.1), Lions (7), Panthers (6.7), Eagles (8.3 but $6850) at Draftstars, and the Eagles ($4500 @ MB), Texans, Chiefs, and Vikings at Moneyball.
  • STACKS: Rodgers/Nelson, Rodgers/Adams, Stafford/Ebron, and Brissett/Hilton are my preferred stacks at Draftstars (and I may try the Colts one), while at Moneyball it’s Winston/Evans and a potential Prescott/Witten/Elliot stack has some interest also.

 

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Darryl Woodford

Darryl is the guy behind the DFS username dpwoodford. Co-founder of Fantasy Insider, he has over 15 years experience in building models for betting on sporting events, and was one of the early leaders in Australian DFS.

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