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NFL DFS Down Under Week 4: Victory Edition

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Darryl Woodford

On this week's Woot & Wye podcast, we discuss wins last weekend for @dpwoodford & Wye - our lineups, and those final moments chasing victory. As usual, we discuss the upcoming slate, some stacks, players and games to target/avoid, and this week we also throw in some discussion of the AFL and NRL Grand Finals, and some strategies for tackling the large amount of prize money on offer this weekend. Scroll down for our crib notes on our top NFL picks for this week.

NFL Crib Notes

The prize money is down at Moneyball this week, but up at Draftstars. Presumably the question is whether people will spend all their $ on AFL & NRL and have none left for NFL, or whether they'll be so hyped after $350,000 in prize money is given away that they'll want to keep rolling into NFL. If you're watching the London game, it's worth keeping an eye on entries to see if there's an overlay (Bankroll Management 101: Play Overlays), but either way, there's some interesting games this week.

  • QB: The cruncher likes Wilson (20.5) a lot at Moneyball; in fact if I set it to 4 unique players per team he's in all of them. Who am I to argue after last week? That game also has some interesting strategy: if the Seahawks go ahead big and early on the back of Wilson, then you can expect the Seahawks RB to rack up some yards running down the clock, but also Jacoby Brissett (13.6) to rack up some passes (and maybe TDs) chasing the lead at a cheap price. Beyond that game, Blake Bortles (16.7!), Andy Dalton (15.5), the perennial favorite of this column Matt Ryan (19.9), and Cam Newton (16.6) all spark some interest.
  • RB:  There's some interesting value around in rookie RB this week, perhaps none more so than Joe Mixon (11.3).  Amongst the more appealing options elsewhere are Lesean McCoy (16.6), Ezekiel Elliot (18.5), Devonta Freeman (16), Dalvin Cook (16.1), Isaiah Crowell (11.9), and Demarco Murray (12.2).
  • WR: The Doug Baldwin (14.5) / Russell Wilson stack was money for me last week, and could be worth a go again -- though with Baldwin under an injury cloud there's a couple of other Seattle stacks that could appeal if he doesn't play. Julio Jones (19.8) appeals both in stacks with Ryan and as a standalone play, as does Alshon Jeffery (14.2), Brandin Cooks (14.2), Marqise Lee (11.5 - and especially if you risk Bortles), Dez Bryant (14.1), Mohammed Sanu (11.1), Pierre Garcon (14.5), and Emmanuel Sanders (14). At Moneyball, many of those same options apply, but I'll reserve a special mention for Ty Hilton (14.6 - especially with Brissett), Larry Fitzgerald (14.8), Demayrius Thomas (14.6), and Brandon Lafell (9.2).
  • TE: After winning basically without one last week (Rudolph scored 0.9 in my 1st placed team), I'm certainly not confident about any of these. That said, you have to play one, so Delanie Walker (11), Jimmy Graham (10.4), Charles Clay (9.8), Sir Kyle Rudolph (10.2), Rob Gronkowski (12.3), Jared Cook (9.1) are all viable plays at DS. Add Zach Ertz (12.9), Jason Witten (9.9), Eric Ebron (9.6), Evan Engram (9.2), Jack Doyle (9.0), Benjamin Watson (7.9) to the list at Moneyball, and hope to get lucky.
  • DEF: This is another position where you need to get lucky, but won't do yourself too much damage. For me, the easy plays are Steelers, Eagles, Panthers, Cowboys & Ravens. At 4500 at Moneyball, I could be talked into playing the Colts, but not if I'm starting Russell Wilson at QB!

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