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The Value Hunter: Round 8 – Sunday Special

Posted Sun 13 May by roody

Sunday Special

I’m not sure how many regular readers I have. I like to think that there are a few of you out there, even though you might not want to admit it. So when I sat down to write up this disgusting 2 game Sunday slate, I really wanted to take the night off. But then I thought of you, my dedicated readers and I just couldn’t leave you by yourselves. So enjoy, this one is for you.

Rucks

Thankfully, the North v Richmond game is first up today so we’ll know if Toby Nankervis is going to miss. Rumours of Nankervis being rested have been circulating all week and if he does sit this one out, I’ll be firing up Ivan Soldo. The Tiger’s backup ruck looked good last year and a young athletic ruckman is the last thing Todd Goldstein wants to come up against.

Zac Smith finally makes his way back into the Geelong lineup. However, he could soon be wishing he was back on the sidelines as he comes up against Brodie Grundy. Smith is a great tap-ruckman and at $9,950 he’s not the worst option today. But the fact that I’m mentioning him in this article gives you some indication of how difficult the ruck options are today.

Brodie Grundy is clearly the ruck with the highest upside today. There have also been rumours that he’s struggling with shin soreness but I think it’s safe to expect 110-130 from Grundy today.

My takes: Fingers crossed that Nank is out and we can all enjoy 70% Ivan Soldo.

Defenders

I hope you’ve brought your panning equipment because if you look close enough, you’re sure to find some sub 10K flecks of gold. I’m not going to mention each of these fleckers individually but I don’t mind Harry Taylor today. Even though he’s been on the record saying that his days of playing the swingman role are over, Geelong will need someone to kick their goals with Tommy Hawkins missing.

With the sheer amount of time the ball spends in the Richmond forward line, it makes sense that the Tigers have given away the most fantasy points to small-medium defenders this year. If you believe in following this kind of statistical trend then Roos defenders Luke McDonald, Ryan Clarke and Jamie McMillan are worth considering. Clarke and McDonald are two of North’s preferred distributors while McMillan is often given the kick-in duties.

I like the chances of Collingwood runner defenders going nuts at the G today. Sam Murray and Jack Crisp are well priced and should enjoy the open spaces of the MCG.

My takes: Midpricers for me today – Clarke, McDonald, Crisp.

Forwards

I suspect they will be many people who try to chase Jack Henry today. Henry smashed through value last week as he marked everything that came within a 5km radius. Mentor Harry Taylor returns to the side today and if Taylor plays back, this could hurt Henry’s potential. For the revenge narrative lovers out there, Travis Varcoe comes up against his old side today as well.

Collingwood mid-forwards have been taking turns kicking bags of goals with Stephenson, De Goey and Thomas all having 5 goal games next to their names. All three are on my short list today, as is Will Hoskin-Elliott. Selecting The Hyphen could be a nice little pivot away from the three aforementioned players who are likely to be popular mid-priced choices on a terrible slate.

Mason Wood had an outstanding first game of the year, raising the bat with 4 goals against Sydney. Interestingly, Richmond has given up a few 100+ scores to key forwards, so Wood could be good to do what’s good.

Finally, Joe the Goose champion Josh Caddy is still priced well, as is Kane Lambert who is averaging 100 over his last three games.

My takes: Pies stack please.

Midfielders

I haven’t left myself much cash for my midfielders and with the Collingwood and Geelong studs on offer, this could be a mistake. However, I’m going to stick with my mid-priced theme and first consider the Pies and Tigers mid-forwards who I left out of my forward line.

Next, I really like Tim Kelly today. At first, I thought today could be the day that Kelly comes crashing back to Earth. But with Hawkins missing, there is a big chance that both Dangerfield and Ablett spend significant time forward. Scott Selwood was a pre-game out so I think this re-establishes Kelly’s role.

North Melbourne are playing a high-pressure game and this could bring Trent Cotchin into play. Cotchin was a late withdrawal last week which, combined with Prestia’s injury, gave all Tigers mids a bump. Consider these points when reviewing last week’s Richmond scores.

Shaun Higgins is well priced considering his importance to North Melbourne’s chances of success. With all the other premium mids on offer, players like Higgins are likely to go overlooked.

My takes: Pies/Tigers mid-forwards, Kelly.

Final thoughts

As I said, I’m not a fan of this slate at all. So let’s just get it done, pick our teams and move on to next week!

roody

Blessed with blinding mediocrity across all sports, Roody quickly discovered the only joy he'd find on the sporting field was through fantasy football. An AFL specialist with 27 years of experience in Dreamteam, Supercoach, Ultimate Footy, Footyrocks and DFS, Roody loves finding value in crowded slates.

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