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The Value Hunter: Round 7 - Sunday Special

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Roody

Sunday Special

The DFS weekend closes with another three game Sunday slate. I don’t have much interest in the Richmond/Fremantle game from a DFS perspective. Richmond are not a traditionally high scoring fantasy team and while Fremantle have been ok, traveling to the MCG changes things significantly. The Melbourne/St Kilda contest should provide some good scores but the real target today is Collingwood who should absolutely thump Brisbane.

Rucks

A lack of cheap plays today makes the ruck decision a little tricky. While I’d love to make room from the in-form Brodie Grundy or Max Gawn, I just don’t think you can make a good enough team if you build around either of these two. Toby Nankervis strikes me as a good alternative. Nankervis had an excellent scoring day last week although it’s worth noting that this score was his first 100 since round 23 last year. Beside Grundy and Gawn, Nankervis is probably the only other ruck on today’s list with a clear 100+ upside.

Tom Hickey has played well against Max Gawn in the past but the Demons have been kryptonite to opposition rucks this year, so proceed with caution.

Mason Cox has strung together a few solid performances now. When I saw that Darcy Moore was back this week, I cooled on Cox a little. I think Moore will continue with this defensive education but I’m just a little worried that Buckley will get a little creative here.

Considering the lack of value today, you could take a punt on Oscar McInerney. The young ruck looked ok in patches last week and if he scraps together a 40-60 score and you nail your other selections, you’re still in with a chance.

My takes: Nankervis, Cox, McInerney (punt play)

Defenders

Travis Varcoe isn’t the worst cheap player on offer today. I know that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement but I think there’s a chance he surpassing value, especially if this game blows out. Fellow pie Matt Scharenberg could also have a good day as he sits in the hole and picks off intercept mark after intercept mark. The same could be said for the more expensive Jeremy Howe.

Tom McDonald eased himself back into senior footy last week and will be better for the run. McDonald’s flexibility and reasonable price make him an attractive option. Michael Hibberd played much of the second half last week as a sweeper (a move I’ve been dying to see Melbourne make). This resulted in Hibberd taking a season-high 8 marks. He’s more expensive this week and since he’s still not in amazing form, there is some risk factor surrounding him.

Speaking of Melbourne, my beloved team is fairly slack in attack and we don’t put a great deal of pressure on opposition defenders. This could mean that Jimmy Webster is allowed to rack up marks and kicks across half-back all day long.

My takes: Varcoe, Howe, Webster.

Forwards

I’m not quite sure how long Bailey Fristch, Mitch Hannan and Charlie Spargo can remain in the same team. While each player has their unique skill set, they do play a similar role for the team. I like Fristch’s ability to get up the ground and if I had to choose one, I’d go for him.

The storyteller in me would love to see Paddy McCartin have his long awaited break-out game against Melbourne today. As we know, St Kilda could have selected Christian Petracca with the first pick in the 2014 draft but instead went with McCartin. How poetic would it be to see McCartin have a huge game today? Very. How likely is it that McCartin has a huge game today? Not very.

I spoke about this often last year but it’s difficult to predict which Richmond small forward will score the highest. Just as Jason Castagna appeared to have added some scoring consistency to his game, up comes Dan Butler who outscored him. There’s also the nippy Jack Higgins who’s trying to stamp his name on the role. Butler and Higgins are both almost $2K cheaper than Castagna, so that helps our decision making process a little.

I don’t mind the idea of playing Darcy Moore today. Brisbane’s doesn’t pose many threats and Moore should be able to float around the backline, marking with ease. Jordan de Goey was well held last week but should get off the lease today against Brisbane. De Goey is a good cheaper option if you’re considering a Collingwood stack. Jaidyn Stephenson is a touch more expensive but is also worth a thought.

James Harmes has enjoyed some increased midfield time over the past few weeks. While Harmes is yet to have a big possession count, he’s a good tackler and has the ability to kick goals.

Kane Lambert has hit some good form and is still well priced for his upside. Whereas Jack Billings is still out form and is still well priced for his upside.

My takes: Varcoe, Billings, Harmes.

Midfielders

The lack of bankable value today makes it difficult to stack your midfield with bona fide stars. Coaches will be forced to think a little differently to create a viable midfield. Collingwood actually give up the most points to opposition midfielders, so let’s look at some Brisbane options to start.

Despite his horrendous start to the season, I’m drawn like a moth to a light to Dayne Zorko. As regular reader would know, I’m a sucker for a fallen premium and Zorko is probably the most out of form midfield pig in the competition. Zorko’s fantasy output has plummeted from its dizzying heights of 2017. Last season Zorko was popping off 120+ scores with ease. This season has been a different story with Zorko struggling to break hard tags. As we know, Collingwood rarely tag opposition mids and perhaps today is when we finally see Zorko bounce back?

Dayne Beams is getting fitter and better every game and I love both his price and his narrative (revenge game) today. Beams are a massive upside when he gets cooking and I’m comfortable pairing him with Zorko.

Just in case I didn’t have a volatile enough midfield already, now I’m going to throw in Taylor Adams. A matchup against Brisbane is the perfect way for Adams to ease his way back into the team and back into form.

Trent Cotchin is under a bit of injury cloud, but if he does play, he’s a decent mid-priced option. In the same game, Stephen Hill could be a good P.O.D play. Hill is well priced and could enjoy the wide open spaces of the MCG.

And finally, if you’re desperate for a cheap rookie, then Hunter Clark will hover around 8-9 x value.

My takes: Zorko, Beams, Adams, Hill.

Final thoughts…

There’s no Sunday funday here with this tough little slate. A lack of value and free squares turns this contest into an old school game of skill. Brisbane/Collingwood is my favourite game to target but you might have to look elsewhere for value.