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The Value Hunter: Round 5 – Swans vs Crows

Posted Fri 20 April by roody

Swans vs Crows

The Round 5 marathon begins tonight at the SCG. Due to the Anzac Day clashes, we have an amazing 5 DFS contests this week.  Predicting the output of Adelaide players is a little tricky tonight as the Crows have only played 2 games at the SCG in recent years. 

Rucks

Straight off the bat I’m going for a surprise ruck selection in my team tonight. Callum Sinclair is in great form but a closer inspection of his performances reveals the reason for this form. Sinclair has played four games this year and the only recognised ruckmen he has faced have been a first-game-back Nic Nat and rookie ruck Tim English. Although he has been scoring well, Sinclair faces a much tougher assignment in Sam Jacobs. Jacobs himself is also a solid option on a single game slate, but I’m going in a different direction tonight.

Tonight, my ruck choice is DPP option Dean Towers. Towers appeals to me for several reasons. First, with Sam Reid out of the team for a prolonged period of time, Towers has become the Swans second tall forward target. Although he’s never been one to kick a bag of goals, this added focus may increase his fantasy output. Second, Towers has been providing Sinclair with some ruck relief. And finally, Tower’s price of $8,850 allows me to spend up in other positions.

Defenders

There aren’t many value options in the backline tonight. There are a bunch of $9K-$10K options but none of them really appeal to me very much. Adelaide pair Luke Brown and Jake Kelly let me down last week and both are priced just a little too high for my liking. I also had hoped to see some higher scores from Callum Mills this year. I’m not sure he’s capable of a 100+ score tonight but he should bring in 70-90. Jake Lloyd started the year with a bang but has fizzled away since. Out of these mid-priced defensive options, it’s still Lloyd who has the greatest upside.

I also don’t mind the idea of paying up for Rory Laird tonight, especially if you throw Towers into your ruck spot. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyle Hartigan to exceed value.

My takes: Hartigan, Mills, Lloyd.

Forwards

I don’t mind targeting the Sydney small forwards tonight. Oli Florent has been terrific in patches this year without having a huge breakout game. Still well priced at $7,500 Florent should get close to value and also provides salary cap relief, especially if you want to pay up for defenders/midfielders. Similar to Dean Towers, Will Hayward gets a theoretical boost in the absence of Sam Reid. It’s worth remembering though that Hayward is still a teenager who’s only 21 games into his career.

Tom Papley’s start to the DFS year has been uninspiring. His 2018 average of 62 is down from his solid 2017 average of 78. He’s a player with real 100 point upside and this may game may provide the contested environment in which Papley can thrive. I feel like Isaac Heeney has just been cruising in second gear so far this year. Heeney has a healthy average of 92 despite failing to register a 100+ score in 2018.

Adelaide’s injury crisis has thrown us some tasty value tonight. One of my favourite DFS players, Riley Knight comes in for his first game of the year. Knight was a Value Hunter favourite in 2017 as he regularly chipped in with solid 9 – 10 x value games. Debutante Miles Poholke gets his chance to prove his worth after playing a year in the SANFL. Poholke is a mid-sized half-forward who will eventually spend some time in the midfield. A solid 10 x debut for Poholke would be excellent.

My take: Florent, Poholke, Heeney.

Midfielders

I’m going to jump straight to my favourite play tonight. In 2018, the Draftstars salary calculator seems to be responding stronger than ever to immediate form. Take Josh Kennedy for example. Two weeks ago, JPK was worth $14,600, scored 100 and his price didn’t change. Last week, JPK was worth $14,600, scored 43 and his price dropped to $13,650. I’m a sucker for a fallen premium, especially one of averages 100.1 across 74 games at the SCG and 103 in his last four games against the Crows.

From here, we can consider Adelaide’s 2nd tier mids who are still getting a significant boost. Hugh Greenwood is my favourite one of these guys to target tonight as I think the game script with suit his mix of inside/outside skills. Rory Atkins is another Crow I’m keen on tonight. He’s in good form and has the outside run that can be damaging against the Swans.

I’ve been keen on Jordan Galluci all pre-season and he gets his first chance to disappoint my expectations tonight. Galluci has genuine pace and I’d love to see him unleashed in the midfield at some point.

Finally, I’d like to take a moment to farewell Paul Seedsman who takes a big jump into the $14 bracket.  

My take: JPK, Atkins, Greenwood, Poholke and Galluci (punt plays).

Final thoughts….

Adelaide has selected a team that is miles away from its best 22. But if you look more closely, their back six is still as strong as ever and they’re only missing Eddie Betts from their forward line. If Gibbs and his merry band of 2nd tier mids can keep up, this game might be closer than you think.

roody

Blessed with blinding mediocrity across all sports, Roody quickly discovered the only joy he'd find on the sporting field was through fantasy football. An AFL specialist with 27 years of experience in Dreamteam, Supercoach, Ultimate Footy, Footyrocks and DFS, Roody loves finding value in crowded slates.

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