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The Value Hunter: Round 20 – Sunday Special

Posted Sat 04 August by roody

Sunday Special

If yesterday was Moving Day then today is Percentage Day! Each of today’s three contests threaten to be complete blowouts. The Dees face a Suns team without the defensive experience of Steven May and Rory Thompson; the Giants get the luxury of resting some stars against the lowly Blues, and the Eagles host the Dockers in what is likely to be a lopsided Derby. It’s a matter of picking your favourite thrashing and load up!

Rucks

There are some decent value ruck options to consider today. You could target key forwards against Carlton and give Rory Lobb a spot in your team. Jeremy Cameron is the other clear choice here (forward only of course) but I like some Melbourne forwards too much to waste my forward selections. Lobb has had a disappointing season to date as he’s struggled with injury and his true role in the team. Today is the perfect opportunity for Lobb to get some confidence back in his game.

Add an ‘e’ and we’ve got our next option – Carlton solo ruck Matthew Lobbe. Though he’s only played two games, Lobbe has dominated the hit-outs in both games and is likely to do so again today. It’s around the ground the Lobbe can let you down but at $9,290, a value game is a big possibility today.

Sean Darcy hasn’t quite been able to recapture his excellent 2017 fantasy form. This is partially because he has been job-sharing with Scott Jones. However, with Matt Taberner back in the side, Jones goes out. While Taberner will give Darcy a bit of a rest at times, it won’t be a significant as the time Jones was taking away from Darcy. In the same game, Scott Lycett is worth a thought and has been scoring well since Nic Nat went down.

My takes: Lobb, Lobbe.

Defenders

There aren’t a lot of attractive cheaper defensive options on this slate. Adam Kennedy exceeded value last week playing largely across half-back and wing. Kennedy may even get some midfield minutes today with the Giants resting some sore players.

In the spirit of #TrustYourGut week, I’ll throw up Bernie Vince’s name. Just about the entire Melbourne outfit is in an absolute smash spot today. I would be entirely surprised to see Vince and Jordan Lewis rack up some big numbers today courtesy of backline junk time.

Caleb Marchbank has enjoyed an excellent fortnight of fantasy scoring and he’s likely to see a lot of the ball again today. Nick Haynes has scored well against weaker teams this year and he should again today as he mops up Carlton’s forward forays.

Even though Matt Taberner is returning, Jeremy McGovern won’t spend too much time in man-on-man contests. This will provide the freedom McGovern needs to return a value score. Shannon Hurn should also be considered as he hasn’t scored below 80 points at home this season. The more expensive Tom McDonald, Angus Brayshaw and Lachie Whitfield all have primo matchups as well.

Forwards

I’m not someone who automatically picks $5K players. Instead, I prefer to consider their individual fantasy relevance before making my selection. Today I think there is a strong chance for two $5K forwards to surpass value – Aaron vandenBerg and Aiden Bonar. The order I’ve listed these players in is deliberate. With his experience and matchup, vandenBerg is clearly the pick of the bunch. Persistent injuries have meant that the bustling mid/forward hasn’t played in two years but he’s sure to make an immediate fantasy impact. vandenBerg is a lock for 10x value will feature in all of my teams. Bonar is a midfield bull in the making. With the outs that the Giants have, I think he could actually see a fair bit of time in the middle – boosting his scoring potential. If you’ve got your eyes on another forward, Bonar is available as a mid as well.

There’s a bit of a jump to the next forwards I’m considering as I don’t love the $6-9K options. Toby Greene will go HAM at some stage over the next few weeks as his match fitness continues to build. Today is as good a day as any, especially with his understudy Tim Taranto out of the team.

Jeremy Cameron returns from suspension and will be keen to redeem himself. It’s the perfect game for Cameron to come back for as Carlton struggles against key forwards have become the stuff of DFS legend in 2018.

Picking the right Melbourne mid/forward will go a long way to determining your overall success today. Christian Petracca and Alex Neal-Bullen are my preferred selection while Jesse Hogan could do nasty, nasty things to an undermanned Suns defence.

Midfielders

I haven’t selected Dom Tyson is a long time and he isn’t in the best form. But this is exactly the kind of the game where Tyson could easily get 25+ touches and a couple of goals. It’s a classic gut call here and Tyson will be low percentage way to gain access to Melbourne’s points.

Will Brodie is going to be star and today, he should get all the midfield minutes he can handle. Another gut call but I really think he could have a breakout game today. Lachie Weller should also spend more time in the guts today rather than at half-back and should also fly under the radar given the stackable options around. Brayden Fiorini did not trouble the scores in the first quarter last week yet still managed to salvage a 75. Love the kid’s ceiling and he’s still on my radar.

Carrying on the theme of additional midfield minutes is GWS’ nomination for quiet achiever of the year – Jacob Hopper. I expect Hopper to be the main beneficiary of Dylan Shiel’s absence today and if he was a little cheaper I’d be all-in.

David Mundy’s last two games at home have been massive (122 and 128). The veteran mid has been important since Fyfe went down and the thing about his scoring is that Freo doesn’t need to win for Mundy to score well. Which is good cos they’re trash. Ed Langdon is at home again and you know what that means – yep, probably another 100+ score.

Callan Ward’s excellent form was halted by a hard tag last week. I doubt that Carlton will do the same today so Ward will find his way into my player pool again.

Good luck picking the right studs today. There are plenty sensational matchups to consider: Oliver and Brayshaw will run amok at the ‘G; while Yeo and Gaff get to ski downhill in Perth; while over at Spotless, Kelly, Whitfield and Coniglio will toy with Carlton like a cat with a mouse.

Final thoughts…

With so many good matchups today, you’ve just got to find your favourites and stick to them. Some cheap value plays will open your lineups up to some high ceiling studs. It’s hard for me to ignore my Demons today as things could get really, really ugly at the ‘G.

roody

Blessed with blinding mediocrity across all sports, Roody quickly discovered the only joy he'd find on the sporting field was through fantasy football. An AFL specialist with 27 years of experience in Dreamteam, Supercoach, Ultimate Footy, Footyrocks and DFS, Roody loves finding value in crowded slates.

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