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The Value Hunter: Round 18 - Saints vs Tigers

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Roody

Saints vs Richmond

What’s our reward for enduring the Saints / Carlton game last Friday night? Another prime time game featuring St Kilda! It was a shame that Kreuzer went down early last week as it ruined Carlton’s structures and didn’t leave us with much of a contest. Hopefully, we won’t have the same issues tonight, although the matchup isn’t very appealing as it is. History will tell you that St Kilda has won the last two games against Richmond under the roof including their awesome win last year which caught everyone by surprise (and probably influenced the scheduling of this game as a Friday night fixture). But the Saints of 2018 have failed to live up to the potential demonstrated in that game and tonight’s contest looks to be a little lopsided. Richmond are 2-0 at Etihad this year and have averaged 1642 fantasy points at the ground, the most of any venue they’ve played at this year.

Rucks

We’ve got an interesting choice to make with our rucks tonight. Rowan Marshall and Tom Hickey job-shared more evenly than I expected last week with Marshall attending his fair share of centre bounces. The young apprentice will find it tougher to make a forward impact this week but could still get close to value if he continues to play an equal role ruck. Hickey does a big ceiling hidden deep down in him but if he could grab a big 100 last week after Kreuzer went down, I don’t see how he gets one tonight against Nankervis. Toby Nankervis himself is firmly in my sights, especially as he averages 125 at Etihad this season.

My takes: Marshall, Nankervis.

Defenders

I really like what I’ve seen from Bailey Rice. The kid has composure beyond his years and rarely wastes the football. On a night with little cheap defensive value, I don’t mind Rice’s chances of getting a solid 8 - 10 x value tonight.

Nick Vlastuin has also enjoyed his last two outings at Etihad and he should play his customary mop-up role across half back. Nathan Broad comes in as well tonight at $7,350. This isn’t a terrible price for Broad who’s averaged 61 in his last three games.

With Jimmy Webster pulling up sore after last week, Shane Savage will be the trust rebounding distributor tonight. With repeat inside 50s been fired in all night long, Savage could have a very big night.

My takes: Rice, Vlastuin, Savage.

Forwards

Daniel Rioli has been excellent since rejoining the Tigers and the Saints will struggle to contain his speed and pressure. Rioli has appeared to impose himself on games more than his Mosquito Fleet teammates recently, leading to a higher ceiling.

Callum Moore could fly under the radar a little tonight. With Carlisle minding Riewoldt, Moore will line up against veteran Sam Gilbert. This is an easily exploitable matchup and one that could lead Moore to value. The past three weeks St Kilda have given up the following scores to key forwards: Charlie Curnow (82), Charlie Dixon (103) and Justin Westhoff (111), Jesse Hogan (94).

Jack Billings has had a great month and has slowly built himself back into some fantasy form. Billings has a fantastic ceiling, especially if he continues to roam wherever he wants to like he did against Carlton.

To be honest, I don’t love the other mid-priced options tonight. Caddy and Lambert are in good spots and so is Riewoldt. I like fading Dusty on these single game slates but of course, he is always an option to consider.

My takes: Moore, Rioli, Billings.

Midfielders

As I mentioned earlier, there isn’t much cheap value around tonight and that fact could make Connor Menadue more popular than he should be. Menadue is the very definition of a depth player having only played 31 games in four years at the club. In terms of his fantasy output, Menadue has a career average of 46 points. Now that isn’t too far off of a value score but don’t expect much more than a 50-60 from Menadue.

Jack Higgins let me down last week with his second worst fantasy performance of the season. Higgins isn’t a terrible play tonight but you could pay an extra $800 and get a higher ceiling player like Shane Edwards.

Running man Ed Phillips continues his consistent run of 70-80 scores. You’ll have to pay $10K for him but the young Saint is becoming a reliable scorer.

David Armitage somehow continues to avoid a salary increase despite a four-game average of 105. He’ll be popular again tonight but I’m ok with that. Dion Prestia has been solid since his return but I’ll love to see him raise the bat sometime soon.

Jack Steven and Seb Ross have both scored well against the Tigers in recent years and I’ll be trying to squeeze one or both into my lineup.

My takes: Menadue (if you need the salary), Armitage (chalky!), Prestia.

Final thoughts…

While it may not be a good game to watch, this is actually a nice little single game slate. With the other sub $7K play being a low ceiling, low floor Menadue, coaches will have found it difficult to roster multiple $13K players. This points to an intriguing DFS contest.