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The Value Hunter: Round 16 – Tigers vs Crows

Posted Fri 06 July by roody

Tigers vs Crows

Adelaide returns to the scene of the crime as we get ready for the second edition of this year’s Grand Final rematch. Despite the Crow’s well-documented injury woes, the team that takes the field tonight is mainly the same that touched up the Tigers back in round 2. On that night, the Crows midfield was dominant and the Tigers had no answer for the twin towers of Walker and Jenkins (9 goals between them). Yet a lot has happened since that game and while on paper the team might be similar, in form and confidence it is anything but. The Tigers return to their happy hunting ground tonight and should have little problem accounting for their famous foe tonight. An even night of salaries should make this an intriguing DFS contest.

Rucks

Toby Nankervis made an absolute fool out of me last week. After writing him off in last week’s article, Nankervis went to town on his old team and returned one of his best fantasy scores of the year. Sam Jacobs has been solid this year but his ceiling has been limited in season 2018. That said, he has good form against Nankervis and will probably will the hit-outs. I hate to take the easy way out but it’s a bit of a coin toss tonight. 

Defenders

Reece Conca’s sickening injury and Nick Vlastuin’s suspension will open up scoring opportunities for other Richmond defenders. Jayden Short and Brandon Ellis should be the main beneficiaries here. More suited to Conca’s dual defensive/midfield role, Ellis could and should pounce on this opportunity. Namesake Corey Ellis will have an increased role and will only set you back $6,260. Corey Ellis is also available as a midfielder. Dylan Grimes should also get a bit of a usage bump. 

Damien Hardwick showed absolutely no respect to Rory Laird in Round 2. The centerpiece of the Crows backline responded with a season-high 42 touches. On a night of soft salaries, I can see a lot of coaches choosing to pay up for Laird and I could just be one of them.

My takes: Short, Ellis (x2), Grimes.

Forwards

There are plenty of decent options in the forward line tonight. I won’t discuss each one but my advice is to pick your forwards on the basis of how you think this game will pan out. Personally, I think that Richmond will be too fast for a sluggish Crows outfit which is also down on confidence. Richmond’s mosquito fleet is in consideration as is out-the-back specialist Josh Caddy. But perhaps my favourite Richmond player to target tonight is Jack Riewoldt. The Tigers forward focal point was outstanding last week and this performance is likely to lift his ownership higher than the 17% that he was last week. Riewoldt’s form at the MCG this year has been terrific with an average of 91 (excluding his injury-affected score of 1).

I don’t love the scoring potential of many Adelaide forwards tonight at all. The speed of young forward/mids Myles Poholke and Jordan Gallucci could come in handy. Neither player has a fantasy record to write home about so playing either one would be a punt. Taylor Walker and Tom Lynch are far too cheap for their ceilings and both will need to fire if Adelaide are to pull of an upset victory.

My takes: Riewoldt, Caddy, Lynch.

Midfielders

Adelaide have confirmed that Matt Crouch will play despite having a fracture in his hand. With Rory Sloane also working his way back to match fitness, I think it’s a good time to consider Adelaide’s second tier midfielders. Hugh Greenwood should enjoy the contest today and if Crouch isn’t 100% the Crows will need Greenwood to step up. Paul Seedsman’s star has fallen as quickly as it rose. April must seem like a long time ago for the Crows halfback who has struggled with the added responsibility during his team’s injury crisis. But with some important players back into their usual roles, Seedsman will enjoy the freedom and space of the MCG.

Dion Prestia made a solid return after a long injury break and is still well priced. Finally, Dustin Martin kicked 5 goals during the first edition of the grand final rematch and we all know how he loves a big game.

My takes: Ellis, Greenwood, Prestia Martin.

Final thoughts…

While Adelaide are stronger on paper this week, they have at least three key players are nursing injuries. Richmond should be too fast and scoring too heavily for the Crows and I think the margin will be less than flattering.

roody

Blessed with blinding mediocrity across all sports, Roody quickly discovered the only joy he'd find on the sporting field was through fantasy football. An AFL specialist with 27 years of experience in Dreamteam, Supercoach, Ultimate Footy, Footyrocks and DFS, Roody loves finding value in crowded slates.

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