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The Value Hunter: Round 15 – Saturday Special

Posted Sat 30 June by roody

Saturday Special

The Draftstars $50K Saturday slate makes a welcome comeback today but I wish we had some better games on offer. Of the four games on today, there are only two that hold any real interest for me. We start with the Power travelling to take on Carlton at the MCG. This game will be little more than a gauge of Port’s finals credentials. Playing at the MCG for the first time this year, a big Port win and perhaps we’ll start to see Port as more than just a stay-at-home bully. Adelaide welcome back a trio of stars just in time for their home clash with West Coast. The Eagles were flying high before their consecutive losses to Sydney and Essendon but now their wings have been clipped. Having only scored 13 goals in two games, the Eagles will be keen to get back on the winners’ list today. The Pies will have their eye on a big win against the hapless Suns and in the game of the slate, the Giants host the Hawks at home.

Rucks

The only time you can consider Andrew Phillips is when he’s a solo ruck and that’s what he’ll be doing today. At $8,350 Phillips is a solid play and will score between 8 – 10 x value. On the flip side, you could assume that Ryder jumps all over him and then Ryder becomes an option.

Jono Celgar is another reasonable cheaper option. It’s pushing my theory of GWS being poor against key forwards a little but Ceglar could pop up for a few goals today.

Dawson Simpson is always worth considering when he solo rucks and he’ll find the matchup a little easier this week against fellow lumbering ruck Ben McEvoy. In the same game, Jarryd Roughead could be a good p.o.d ruck/forward choice. Roughead burnt me badly last week and I’m not sure I can pull the trigger again. However, the Giants struggle against key forwards so this is a good spot to target.

Peter Wright’s price has risen a little too much for me but without Tom Lynch to help him, the Suns will rely on Wright as a major source of goals. Trouble is, I don’t expect the ball to be down in the Suns forward line that much today.

Charlie Dixon and his more expensive teammate Justin Westhoff are on my hit list today. Key forwards playing Carlton remain a good target and if Port getting moving today both big men could be in for some high scores.

Defenders

I’ve got a real soft spot for Jack Trengove and I’m genuinely thrilled for him that he gets another chance at the highest level tonight. Poor player development, injury and the ridiculous burden of the Melbourne captaincy ruined his early year but tonight a new chapter begins. Trengove has been chugging along nicely in the SANFL and shouldn’t have many problems reaching value today. He’s pretty close to a must play for me, especially as he’s only available as a defender.

The Pies will be a popular stacking team today but if you want exposure to that game without the ownership levels, then throw a dart with Brody Mihocek. I’m still not entirely sure what Mihocek’s permanent role is in Collingwood’s best 22. But at the moment, he seems to have slotted in nicely to the Ben Reid swingman role. There’ll be goals galore today, so hopefully, Mihocek will be able to grab a few.

Jasper Pittard at the MCG without Darcy Byrne-Jones stealing his possessions? Yeah, I’ll take some of that thanks!

And now it’s Collingwood time again! As I mentioned earlier, Collingwood players are going to have high ownership and with good reason. From Langon to Crisp and everyone in between, the Pies defenders are all in exceptional spots.

In the same game, I like Jarrod Harbrow and the role that he’ll have in repeatedly kicking the ball out of his defensive 50. At the expensive end of the list, Kade Simpson will have exactly the same role.

Forwards

Gold Coast Suns coach Stewie Dew certainly wants to see what he’s actually got on his list as he continues to roll through his rookies. Wil Powell is the next kid to get his chance and he’s available as a $5K forward/mid. When you think of Powell, think of an even skinnier version of Jack Martin. Powell is an elite runner and plays an equal good inside and outside game. My biggest concern is that there are just so many similar players in the Suns team today that it’s difficult to predict who is going to play where.

Taylor Walker is perhaps in the worst form of his career. While he’s kicking the odd goal or two, the Crows captain is just isn’t having any impact of games at the moment. The cavalry returns for the Crows tonight, so maybe that will help Tex lift his game too.

Will Hoskin-Elliott is one of my favourite targets today. Collingwood players are always popular and they’ll be even more so today with their excellent matchup and the expected Treloar bumps. However, you can only take four Magpies today and I’m hoping that other coaches will ignore The Hyphen. WHE is in great form and if the Magpies get cooking today, he could easily kick a nice old bag of goals. Jordan De Goey will be more popular than WHE and admittedly, De Goey’s ceiling is a lot higher.

Staying with the Collingwood team, Jaidyn Stephenson will be a popular target in an expected thrashing while Josh Thomas could fly under the radar due to good old recency bias.

Jack Gunston played hurt last week and still chalked by a reasonable score of 69. Lead up forwards like Gunston have proved a difficult matchup for GWS so I fancy his chances of scoring well today.

Big Jonathon Patton will shoulder significant responsibility as the key forward target for the Giants. The standard of Patton’s overall performance causes some debate and his harshest critics go absolutely bugged-eyed when he has an off day. I’m backing Patton to respond well to this pressure and produce when it counts.

Jack Martin is someone who I’ll always consider when he’s priced well and he is again today at $10K. Martin is a sight to behold when he’s able the individual elements of his game working at the same time. The only knock on him is that he often struggles to do that. Martin’s only scored one 100 this year but I still believe his upside is high.

Midfielders

Still hungry for $5K players then perhaps we’ve saved the best option (or at least the most popular option) until last. Magpie supporters have been waiting three years to see midfield bull Brayden Sier debut. He’s a lump of kid (listed at 190cm and 90kgs) and been given a decent run through the midfield.

We have potential Treloar bumps all over the ground today and Taylor Adams is another to add to the list. Adams has spent more time in the middle over recent weeks and this is due to continue today.

Jared Polec and Brad Ebert could enjoying themselves on the MCG wings this afternoon. Both a priced just a little high for the form but their exceptional ceilings (especially in a free-flowing game) make them attractive targets.

I love a good humble brag and in my pre-season preview I wrote that I thought Jaeger O’Meara would return to being a 100+ averaging midfield by season’s end. We’re now in Round 15 and O’Meara is just shy of that mark. I love O’Meara’s ability to stuff every column of the stat sheet and I think he’ll have a great battle with the gun GWS mids today as well.

Finally, I don’t know why but I get the feeling that this is a big Bryce Gibbs day. I think he’ll be low owned and have a huge day.

roody

Blessed with blinding mediocrity across all sports, Roody quickly discovered the only joy he'd find on the sporting field was through fantasy football. An AFL specialist with 27 years of experience in Dreamteam, Supercoach, Ultimate Footy, Footyrocks and DFS, Roody loves finding value in crowded slates.

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