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The Value Hunter: Round 13 - Swans vs Eagles

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Roody

Swans vs Eagles

If I have to remind you of the history which these two teams share, then I’m seriously concerned about your knowledge of the modern game! The Eagles are perched on top of the ladder with a 10-1 record. And who is the team that took that perfect record away from them? Yep, it was Sydney way back in Round One. The Swans have a few blips this year but, as great teams do, they keep chalking up wins and now sit 3rd on the ladder. The SCG hasn’t entirely been the happy hunting ground that it once was, but the Swans have won three of their last four games at home. What makes this game tough from a DFS perspective is that most Eagles players have played very little at the SCG (apart from ex-Swan Lewis Jetta of course). Since 2011, the Eagles have only played the SCG once! It’s an unbelievable fixturing stat but one that makes this contest even more interesting.

Rucks

I’m excited. For the entire year, Nic Naitanui has had his game time carefully managed. Of the 10 games Nic Nat has played, he’s only ever played more than 60% of a game on one occasion. This cautious approach is completely justified but I’m hoping that with last week off, that Nic Nat may be given a little more time on the ground. What he’s been able to do with his limited game time has been phenomenal, so I can’t wait to see what he could do with 70-75% TOG.

Callum Sinclair’s rich vein of form continues and he’ll have big workload again tonight. It is worth noting that Sinclair’s last two 100+ scores have been propped up by returns of 2 and 3 goals respectively.

The other ruck option is Mr Consistent - Scott Lycett. West Coast’s successful tandem ruck role has been a key ingredient of their form this year. Lycett has played more game time than Nic Nat and presents a tough matchup when he goes forward.

My takes: Nic Nat, Lycett.

Defenders

Aliir Aliir rejoins the Swans for just his second game this year. Aliir has had a solid month in the NEAFL, averaging 20 touches and 5 marks over his last four games. This kind of stat line is exactly what he’ll need if he’s going to return value. Since we know that West Coast is an attacking time, Aliir will definitely have the opportunities to score well.

Jacob Brander is the other bargain price option tonight. Brander will play as a key forward and the Eagles will hope that he fill part of the Jack Darling lead up role. Those are big shoes to fill for a debutant so as tempting as it is to save cash with an Aliir/Brander backline, I think we can find better value elsewhere.

I’m uninspired by the low to mid-priced defensive options tonight. Dane Rampe and Nick Smith can often have their random nights but it’s difficult to predict when that’s going to be. Liam Duggan has been solid without really impressing and half-back can often score well at the SCG.

However, with the value on offer tonight, I think we can lift our eyes a little higher and consider the more expensive defenders on the slate. Jake Lloyd should get a usage bump with Jarrad McVeigh missing through injury. Elliot Yeo could fly under the radar and would be a great p.o.d play.

My takes: Aliir, Lloyd.

Forwards

I’ll be honest with you. There are only two forwards I want in this game - Isaac Heeney and Lance Franklin. With 4 x 100s (and a 98) in his last five games, Heeney’s price should probably be a little higher than it is. Heeney is at home on the wings of the SCG and should be able to add to his recent good record. Buddy went to town on the Eagles in Round One kicking 8 goals and scoring 155 points. I just have to have exposure to him tonight.

To allow me to play these Buddy and Heeney (in the midfield), I do however, need to make a very risky move - I’m playing Jacob Brander. I’m not expecting much from him but if he could get a 35-45, I’d be very happy.

My takes: Brander, Franklin, Heeney.

Midfielders

Last week I told you about my sneaky Oli Florent multi. Well during last week’s game, Florent went from $51 to $14 for the Rising Star award. Florent should have another good scoring game tonight. He’ll get a usage bump from McVeigh’s absence and he should get pretty close to value.

Zak Jones is another Swan you could if you’re factoring in the half-back vacancy. Jones hasn’t had a big score this year but usually plays better at the SCG than away from it.

Dom SheedLuke Shuey and Jack Redden are all priced within a few thousand dollars of each other and are all worth considering. I think Shuey will be the highest owned of these three but it’s worth noting that he has missed a bit of footy. Jack Redden probably has the best ceiling of these players and will have a big night if things get hot and heavy.

Of the higher price Swans, I think Luke Parker could have a really good night. I love playing a midfielder who can do it all - find the ball, mark, tackle and of course, kick goals. Parker is exactly that kind of player and after an inconsistent year, he’s starting to find some form.

My takes: Florent, Jones, Parker, Heeney.