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The Value Hunter: Round 11 - Swans vs Blues

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Roody

Swans vs Carlton

You’d be forgiven for assuming that this game will be an absolute thrashing. Sydney, at home, against the lowly Blues, the game’s best key forward against a team who is giving up the most points against key forwards… However, Carlton has been more resilient in defeat than you’d think. Apart from two thrashing at the hands of North Melbourne (86 points) and Melbourne (109 points), Carlton’s averaging losing margin has been a more respectable 26 points. But while the Swans have failed to impress at the SCG this year, they’ll be looking at this matchup as the ideal opportunity to reclaim their infamous home ground advantage.

Rucks

Only two choices tonight so there’s not a great deal to discuss. Matthew Kreuzer has traditionally had a higher ceiling than Callum Sinclair but he’s also more expensive tonight. With only two options, ownership will naturally be fairly even. However, I expect that Sinclair will be slightly more popular than Kreuzer given that he’s $2K cheaper. The only reason I’m rolling with Sinclair is that it allows me to be a little more creative with the rest of my lineup.

My takes: Sinclair.

Defenders

Both the Swans and Blues have a host of sub $10K defensive options, not many of which really appeal to me. You could take a punt on a random Nick Smith or Dane Rampe day but they’re not for me. Riley Stoddard looked ok last week although he did spend more time in the forward line than I expected him too. Stoddard is still only $6K and I think he’s a decent chance to get close to value.

The only sub $10K player I like is Heath Grundy. Key defenders aren’t normally a reliable source of fantasy points. However, Carlton’s forward line is nothing special and Grundy has a good opportunity to rack up some cheap mark/kick stats. Carlton’s forward line is even more depleted than normal and it’s hard to even see a direct matchup for Grundy. This means he’ll just sit in the defensive hole all night and pick off intercept marks with ease.

Jarrad McVeigh has been in solid form though his price is just a little too expensive for his upside.

My takes: Stoddard, Grundy.

Forwards

Again, we have a collection of very cheap forward line options which don’t really appeal to me. Gary Rohan can have random big scores and you could argue that makes a good GPP play but he’s not for me tonight. Instead, I’m turning to Jack Silvagni for value. The young Blue finds himself at a fork in his career. If it doesn’t find his niche in the side soon, the club could be forced to make a very difficult decision. A little too small to play key forward and a little too slow to play around the ground, Silvagni has spent his time in the VFL as an inside midfielder. The move has been a positive one with the kid even reaching two 100s in his last few games. Despite being named at full forward, I expect to see Carlton continue with this midfield experiment.

Will Hayward has been super consistent this year and he keeps chipping in with solid 70-80 point scores. Darcy Lang’s price drop makes him more appealing and he’s still learning to gel with his new teammates.

Finally, I think we can still call Buddy Franklin value at $13K, especially against a side that he scored 171 against in Round 23 last year.

My takes: Silvagni, Lang, Buddy.

Midfielders

It really is a mid-priced feast in the midfield today. With Marc Murphy missing again, opportunities will be there for Carlton’s young depth midfielders. Paddy Dow and Sam Petrevski-Seton are in good spots and I particularly like Dow’s price and form. For the Swans, Nic Newman returns and will likely split his time between the midfield and his beloved half-back position. The out-of-form Dan Hannebery continues to see his price plummet. I played him at $12K last week and that should mean that I should play him this week as well. However, I've been burnt by fallen premiums this year and I think he could be a trap.

Sam Kerridge should always be considered due to his higher ceiling but the fact that he tagged in last week’s game has me a little concerned.

From here, we have a bunch of $13K mids to consider and arguments could be made for each player. Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy, Dale Thomas and Isaac Heeney are all priced around this mark. While it’s hard to overlook the decorated fantasy careers of Parker and JPK, it’s also hard to ignore Thomas’ recent form and Heeney’s consistency and upside.

My takes: Dow, Heeney, Thomas.

Final thoughts…

It’s been a big week for us DFS lovers, so it will be nice to sit back and escape the dramatic change over at Draftstars by watching this contest. Fingers crossed that there are no live scoring issues!