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The Value Hunter: Round 11 – Sunday Special

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Roody

Sunday Special

Another article and another mention of the new anti-stacking rules over at Draftstars. If it wasn’t for these new rules, I think we’d all be stacking Collingwood against Peel Thunder at the ‘G. The Dockers have made a huge 6 changes to the team they’re bringing to Melbourne and this doesn’t bode well. Teams that make so many changes rarely do well as they struggle to gel and stick to team structures. The other two games are more interesting from a pure footy point of view rather than a DFS perspective. If the Roos are the real deal, they should spank Brisbane (who actually play pretty well at Etihad). Adelaide needs to regroup quickly after their debacle in Alice Springs while the Giants will be keen to arrest their form slump.

Rucks

Brodie Grundy against two untested rucks? Yes please. I mean, of course he’s expensive but I can’t see him walking away with much less than 120+. Apeness isn’t short (201cm) and Scott Jones is a man mountain, but I think that Grundy will simply be too good and too smart for both of them. There are rookies around today to balance his price out as well.

Sam Jacobs was eaten alive at the contests last week with Max Gawn winning a massive 49 hitouts. Jacobs has a fair easier task against Rory Lobb and his $11K is also attractive.

My takes: Grundy (not a value play of course, just the guy I want).

Defenders

There are a couple of defensive debutants today in Sam Taylor and Brody Mihocek. I’m not too excited by the fantasy prospects of Taylor - a key defender from the Giants. However, the mature-aged Mihocek should be able to mark/kick his way around the Collingwood backline to find value. The Pies defenders played piggy-in-the-middle for most of the second half last week and with Fremantle unlikely to offer match resistance today, I’m keen on a Collingwood defensive stack. There’s no reason why the bottom price Mihocek can’t be a part of that. If you’re really brave, you could even chase Lynden Dunn’s 98 from last week.

Brisbane half-backs Alex Witherden and Tom Cutler will enjoy playing under the roof of Etihad and if Brisbane are going to cause an upset, they’ll need to over possess the ball.

I also like the idea of Connor Blakely and Luke Ryan using the wide open spaces of the MCG to stuff their mark/kick columns. Jack Crisp should also be considered for the same reason.

Forwards

Today’s third debutant is the luckless Paul Ahern who finally plays his first game after waiting four years at two clubs. Ahern has a great skill set and plays mainly as an inside midfielder. He’s excellent in traffic and has a beautiful boot. I don’t see why he can’t break through his $5K value barrier under the dome today. The fact that he’s available as a forward is a nice little bonus.

Cam Rayner’s price continues to fall. Whether you continue to chase a Rayner break-out game is simply a question of patience. The kid will score well one day this season but I think there are better options out there today.

Michael Apeness is named as forward but is likely to be given the first crack at Grundy. You could play a double ruck stack but I don’t think Apeness will get close to his $7,400 value.

Sometimes you play DFS on hunches and I have a hunch that Eddie Betts will kick a bag tonight. Looking at the Giants team sheet, I just don’t see who will be able to handle Eddie’s unique set of skills.

As long as Ed Langdon is available as a forward, I’m going to be considering him in my lineups. Langdon has been playing largely as a winger, half-forward and has spent 60% of his team in his own defensive half this season. But ok, Draftstars, I’ll take him in my forward line!

My takes: Ahern, Langdon.

Midfielders

Still hungry for fresh meat? Ok, what about Stefan Giro. First, if this kid’s nickname isn’t ‘d’italia’, I’ll be very disappointed. Second, he actually goes alright. Giro is an elite runner and has played a decent amount of senior footy in South Australia. It’s a little difficult to forecast his role though.

Ben Jacobs is likely to be given the shut-down role on Zorko. Jacobs isn’t most reliable fantasy scorer but he can often hit big scores as his opponent takes him to the ball regularly. Last week is a good example of this.

Matt Crouch’s price is decent and his scores have been solid apart from one injury affected outing.

I’m not sure what to make of Lachie Neale these days. The former pig just isn’t the bankable, high-ceiling player he once was. That said, that his ceiling always tempts me, especially at $13k.

Paul Seedsman is cheaper than he’s been for a while and his running ability will come in handy against the Giants.

With Fremantle’s big list of changes, I also don’t mind the idea of targeting their more senior players like Michael Walters and Connor Blakely.