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The Value Hunter: Power vs Tigers

Posted Fri 08 June by roody

Power vs Tigers

Do cheap ‘free square’ players make for an exciting or boring DFS contest? This question causes some debate among the DFS community. Some people believe that free squares release the shackles of the salary cap, allowing entrants to be more creative with their lineups. Others bemoan high ownership and find these slates boring and predictable. Tonight we have the biggest DFS locks for season 2018. So whichever side of this debate you’re on, get ready for ownership records to be broken.

Anthony Miles

I’m making the unprecedented move of talking about a player before I discuss individual positions. Anthony Miles could set some ownership records on this slate. Apart from predicting a game-ending injury, I cannot see any justification for fading Miles. In the 60 games he’s played for the Tigers (he played 10 games for GWS), Miles only been under 50 (aka 10 x value) 4 times! He’s also scored 80+ in 80% of his Richmond games and 100+ in 30%. It’s not often that we get $5K players whose floor is already 12 x their value or whose ceiling is potentially 20 – 25 x value. I don’t care how high is ownership actually is because an injury is that only way that Miles is not in the winning lineup tonight.

Rucks

There some interesting options in the ruck tonight and you can make arguments for each of the most expensive players. If Justin Westhoff played for a Victorian team then I think we’d all appreciate this bloke a lot more. I’m not at all saying that he’s in the same talent category as Adam Goodes but I’ll challenge you to name a current player who is more versatile than Westhoff. He’s got a great history against the Tigers and I think he’s got the highest ceiling of any of the ruck options.

Toby Nankervis must be screaming for a rest but the Tiger’s big man just keeps on plugging away. The key reason I would consider Nankervis is that I still have doubts over Paddy Ryder’s fitness. Usually, I’d back Ryder to jump all over Nankervis but this week, I’m not so sure.

My takes: Ryder (value), Westhoff (ceiling).

Defenders

Jasper Pittard isn’t quite the lock that Miles is tonight, but he’s still a great cheap option. Pittard returns for just his second game this year at the bargain price of $6,280. I’m not quite sure why Pittard’s price is so low but I’m not complaining. In the past two years, Pittard has rarely scored below would be 9 – 10 x value. At his best, Pittard is capable of some great scores but he can be inconsistent.

Besides Pittard, there are some interesting mid-priced defensive options tonight. Richmond trio Nick Vlastuin, Reece Conca and Jayden Short all check in around $10-11K and are all viable options. Conca is flying under the radar a little and he has developed a reasonable floor this season. Of these three, Conca is also the most likely to be added to the Tiger’s midfield rotations tonight, increasing his appeal.

Brandon Ellis spent a month in the twos and has scored two 80s upon his return. Ellis has some excellent historical scores at Adelaide Oval so he could be worth a spot tonight.

I also like Darcy Byrne-Jones tonight. DBJ has had more responsibility in the absence of Pittard and Hartlett and both his football and fantasy scoring have benefited. I’m a little concerned about how Pittard and DBJ will impact each other’s scoring but I’m willing to take a chance that there will be some positive correlation.

My takes: Pittard, Conca, DBJ.

Forwards

With the value on offer today, I suspect that much of the forward line value will go unnoticed. Plays like the returning Jason Castagna or the possibility of an increase midfield role for Jack Higgins could be good contrarian options.

Kane Lambert and Chad Wingard are cheaper than they’ve ever been this year but both players are performing well below their potential.

Shane Edwards could be a popular choice on the back of his excellent performance against Essendon. No one has ever questioned Edwards’ talent but he has never been a reliable fantasy performer. Edwards is one of several Tigers who could benefit from Dusty’s absence.

Finally, I’m finding it hard to resist the affordable ceilings of Port Adelaide mid/forward pair Tom Rockliff and Robbie Gray. Rockliff’s sub-par outing sunk many lineups last Saturday but I’m backing the pig in tonight. Had Ken Hinkley not sent Rockliff to tag Mitchell in the second half, Rockliff would have scored much higher than his measly 43 points.

My takes: Edwards, Gray, Rockliff.

Midfielders

Apart from the dual position players I’ve already mentioned, Shaun Grigg is someone who I’m hoping will go a little under-owned tonight. Over the last few years, Grigg has averaged around 95 fantasy points but this year, that average has dipped to 74. I’m hoping that Grigg will have a ‘Dusty bump’ which will see him get closer to that 90-100 mark.

Another significant ‘Dusty bump’ should raise Trent Cotchin scoring potential and he could easily have an 8-10 tackle night. The Tigers will need their captain’s contested ball game tonight so I’m definitely backing him in.

My last midfield spot goes to Brad Ebert. Even with their best player missing, the idea of a Richmond midfield stack makes me feel a little ill. Even though I have Rockliff and Gray in my forward line, I’ve gone for one more Port midfield in my lineup. Ebert has been a little down on his excellent 2017 form but I like his chances of a big score at home.

My takes: Miles, Miles, Miles, Miles, Miles, Miles, Miles, Miles, Miles,  Miles.

Final thoughts…

Richmond are somehow underdogs tonight and I think this is a massive oversight by the bookies. It will be interesting to see how people handle the salary cap tonight as it’s possible to select a viable team with a fair bit of cash left over!

roody

Blessed with blinding mediocrity across all sports, Roody quickly discovered the only joy he'd find on the sporting field was through fantasy football. An AFL specialist with 27 years of experience in Dreamteam, Supercoach, Ultimate Footy, Footyrocks and DFS, Roody loves finding value in crowded slates.

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